Prediction markets
7 papers on prediction markets as a systematic trading strategy. Pricing and trading in prediction and betting markets.
Also searched as: prediction markets, betting markets, sports betting strategies, bookmaker odds
Papers72010–2026
Share of the family100 %7 of 7
Asset
Method
Papers by yearPrediction markets
Related familiespapers shared with this family
| Most cited in each asset | cited by | asset | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longshots, Overconfidence and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market by Berg and RietzPrediction markets | 19 | Prediction markets | 2010 |
| Latest additions | asset | |
|---|---|---|
| Are Short-Horizon Crypto Prediction Markets Calibrated? Evidence from 209,000 Polymarket Contracts, and a Cautionary Note on Inference with Pooled Strategy Entries by GruenerCrypto | Crypto | 2026 |
| Four Strategies, 562 Trades, Zero Edge: A Forensic Autopsy of Algorithmic Weather Betting by WenthPrediction markets | Prediction markets | 2026 |
| Minority Report: Contrarian Traders, Prediction Markets, and the Return of Post-Earnings Drift by FengEquities | Equities | 2026 |
| Statistical Arbitrage in Binary Prediction Markets: Three Systematic Strategies and Their Empirical Properties by NunesPrediction markets | Prediction markets | 2026 |
| Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Structural Approach by Xi et al.Prediction markets | Prediction markets | 2026 |
Prediction markets in prediction markets
5 papers| cited by | method | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Four Strategies, 562 Trades, Zero Edge: A Forensic Autopsy of Algorithmic Weather Betting by Wenth | 0 | 2026 | |
| Statistical Arbitrage in Binary Prediction Markets: Three Systematic Strategies and Their Empirical Properties by Nunes | 0 | Mathematical derivation | 2026 |
| Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Structural Approach by Xi et al. | 0 | Classical time series | 2026 |
| MLB Moneylines as Investment Assets by Axelsen | 0 | 2022 | |
| Longshots, Overconfidence and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market by Berg and Rietz | 19 | 2010 |
Prediction markets in crypto
1 paper| cited by | method | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Are Short-Horizon Crypto Prediction Markets Calibrated? Evidence from 209,000 Polymarket Contracts, and a Cautionary Note on Inference with Pooled Strategy Entries by Gruener | 0 | 2026 |
Prediction markets in equities
1 paper| cited by | method | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Minority Report: Contrarian Traders, Prediction Markets, and the Return of Post-Earnings Drift by Feng | 0 | Linear factor models | 2026 |