Statistical Arbitrage in Binary Prediction Markets: Three Systematic Strategies and Their Empirical Properties
A 2026 paper by Nunes on prediction markets in prediction markets, using a mathematical derivation: the abstract does not mention a benchmark, an out-of-sample test, transaction costs, multiple testing or the size of the universe.
“Across 50-cycle synthetic simulations, fractional Kelly sizing produces trade-size distributions consistent with theoretical optima.”
AssetPrediction markets
StrategyPrediction marketspairs trading
TechniqueMathematical derivation
Missing from abstract: benchmark, out-of-sample test, costs, multiple testing, universe
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The paper's neighbourhoodPrediction markets by year
FamilyPrediction markets7Momentum and trend following289Factor investing240Machine learning return prediction15318 more · 995
AuthorsNunes1
The family is counted across the whole universe. Asset, method and authors are counted inside the family.
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