Innovation Theater: Frontier Narrative Adoption, Investment Decoupling, and Cross-sectional Return Predictability
Machine learning return prediction in equities over 2000–2022, studied by Tang and co-authors in 2026 with symbolic search. The abstract mentions profits but not a benchmark, an out-of-sample test, transaction costs, multiple testing or the size of the universe.
“The NAG predicts lower future profitability, operating entirely through the investment channel and amplified during crisis periods when foregone investment becomes competitively binding.”
AssetEquitiessingle stocks
StrategyMachine learning
TechniqueSymbolic search
Sample window2000–2022
Also stated: Profit, Text and news
Missing from abstract: benchmark, out-of-sample test, costs, multiple testing, universe
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The paper's neighbourhoodMachine learning return prediction by year
The family is counted across the whole universe. Asset, method and authors are counted inside the family.
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