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A Bipartite Graph Approach to U.S.-China Cross-Market Return Forecasting

Jing Liu, Maria Grith, Xiaowen Dong, Mihai Cucuringu·2026

“Our results reveal a pronounced directional asymmetry: U.S. previous-close-to-close returns contain substantial predictive information for Chinese intraday returns, whereas the reverse effect is limited.”

AssetEquities
StrategyMachine learning
GeographyUSChina
FrequencyIntraday

Missing from abstract: benchmark, out-of-sample test, costs, multiple testing, universe

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The paper's neighbourhoodMachine learning return prediction by year
■ equities■ crypto■ commodities■ bonds and credit■ other assets2010201520201862This paper2026■ equities■ crypto■ commodities■ bonds and credit■ other assets20102015202062This paper2026
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