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The G-Spread: A Business-Economics-Based Measure of Permanent Capital Loss Risk

2026

“Across the four markets, holdings flagged EXCLUDED by the financial-health gates returned an average of −12.9% per year, beating the benchmark in only 2% of cases, while holdings classified LOW RISK delivered average excess returns of 10.8 percentage points above the benchmark, beating it 93% of the time.”

AssetEquities
StrategyFactor investing
TechniqueLinear factor model
GeographyUSEurope

Also stated: Excess return, Price and volume

Missing from abstract: benchmark, out-of-sample test, costs, multiple testing, universe

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■ equities■ bonds and credit■ multi-asset■ volatility and options■ other assets200020052010152015131620201632This paper2026■ equities■ bonds and credit■ multi-asset■ volatility and options■ other assets2000200520101520151316202032This paper2026
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