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Positioning

Where is the crowd positioned?
CFTC Rates Positioning

CFTC leveraged-funds (hedge-fund) net Treasury-futures positioning by tenor (2y/5y/10y/30y).

How Net = long − short from the CFTC Traders-in-Financial-Futures report, 8-week smoothed, 3-year rolling z-score (σ).Source CFTC

cftc_rates_positioning

How to read An extreme net-short reading = heavy crowding — the research-standard rates-crowding measure.

Descriptive: report net-short by tenor vs history — NOT 'the basis trade' (the Fed cautions that inference overstates it).

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