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Policy path

What is the market pricing for the Fed?
Market-Implied Policy Path

The market-implied fed-funds path — the expected average rate ~12 months out plus near-term cut/hike odds.

How Derived from CME 3-month SOFR options (Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker), lightly smoothed.Source Atlanta Fed MPT

policy_path

How to read Reads as '~N cuts priced by year-end' / 'X% odds of a cut at the next meeting'.

Risk-neutral, market-implied — 'the market is pricing', never a forecast of what the Fed will do.

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