Rates

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Rates moved on several fronts. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63.

5.7× its usual move

The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026. The 1-3y Treasury ETF sits at +0.4%.

How much term premium is in long-term yields?

FREDunavailable

3.4× its usual move

ETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63, 3.4 times its normal pace.

Where is the crowd positioned?

Yahoo Financeunavailable

2.4× its usual move

The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.59 to 4.80. Rate realized vol moved from +84.9% to +83.9%.

How volatile is the Treasury market?

Cboeunavailable

Quiet (0.0×)

Net interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

What is the fiscal and cross-asset backdrop for bonds?

Yahoo Financeunavailable

No fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -18.0% to -33.0%.

What shape is the Treasury curve?

FREDunavailable

Descriptive research, not investment advice