Real & inflation

Growth repricing or inflation repricing?

Real-Yield Decomposition

The 10-year nominal yield split into its real (TIPS) yield and breakeven inflation.

Formula nominal = real + breakevenSource FRED

real_yield_decomp—

How to read A real-rate-led move (real up, breakeven flat) = growth/policy repricing; a breakeven-led move = inflation repricing.

Breakeven Inflation (5Y/10Y)

5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation — market-implied inflation compensation.

Formula nominal − realSource FRED

breakevens—

How to read Read the move, not the level.

Descriptive: a breakeven is NOT the market's inflation forecast — it carries an inflation-risk premium and a TIPS-liquidity premium.

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