Curve shape

What shape is the Treasury curve?

Yield Curve

The full Treasury spot curve (1-month to 30-year), today vs 1 month and 3 months ago.

How Constant-maturity Treasury par yields.Source U.S. Treasury

yield_curve—

How to read Steep = growth/inflation premium; flat or inverted = tight policy and slowdown risk.

2s10s Slope

The 10-year minus 2-year curve slope.

Formula 10y − 2ySource FRED

spread_2s10s—

How to read Negative (inverted) is a classic recession lead; re-steepening out of inversion often precedes the downturn.

3m10y Slope

The 10-year minus 3-month slope — the Fed's preferred recession spread.

Formula 10y − 3mSource FRED

spread_3m10y—

How to read Inversion has preceded every modern US recession.

Curvature (Belly)

The 'belly' of the curve — the Diebold-Li empirical curvature factor.

How 2·DGS2 − DGS3MO − DGS10.Formula 2·2y − 3m − 10ySource FRED

curve_curvature—

How to read Positive = humped / belly cheap vs the wings; negative = belly rich.

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