Rate differentials

Where does the US yield vs the rest of G10, nominal and real?

Rates — US−Foreign Rate Gaps (3m & 10y)

US-minus-foreign nominal rate gaps at the 3-month and 10-year tenors — the headline rate-differential read across G10.

How US policy/short and 10y yields minus the foreign equivalents, in percentage points.Formula gap = US rate − foreign rateSource FRED

fx_rate_differentials—

How to read Read 'the US currently out-yields' (or under-yields) at each tenor — a present-state gap, not a direction.

An INCOMPLETE, regime-dependent read of FX (BIS WP1320 — US inflation is an unspanned driver of the dollar); the rate-diff↔FX link loosens and is not a forecast. The carry leg of this is built on the OBSERVED short-rate differential, not paid forward points (CIP deviations apply), so it is the rate-differential proxy for carry, not the forward-implied carry a desk books.

Rates — US−Foreign Real-Rate Gaps

The same gap in REAL terms — US-minus-foreign real-rate compensation, a coarser but inflation-adjusted anchor.

How Policy/short rate minus CPI inflation per country (a real-rate proxy), then US minus foreign.Formula real rate ≈ policy rate − CPI YoYSource FRED — computed

fx_real_rate_diff—

How to read Where US real-rate compensation sits vs the rest — a present-state real gap, descriptive only.

An INCOMPLETE, regime-dependent read of FX (BIS WP1320 — US inflation is an unspanned driver of the dollar); the rate-diff↔FX link loosens and is not a forecast. The real-rate read = policy-rate-minus-CPI proxy (non-US linkers aren't free), a coarse anchor.

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