The realized FX carry factor: the RX dollar basket and HML_FX — high-minus-low, long the high-yielders and short the low-yielders.
How to read Describes what carry HAS delivered — the realized factor level, never an entry signal.
Built on the OBSERVED short-rate differential, NOT forward points (forwards are paid). Cross-currency-basis / CIP deviations mean this is the rate-differential proxy for carry, not the forward-implied carry a desk books. The carry factor suffers crash risk in risk-off — the chart only DESCRIBES what it has done.