IG and HY option-adjusted spreads (ICE BofA indices).
How to read A leading indicator for equity stress and risk appetite; widening = rising risk aversion.
The Chicago Fed NFCI — a weekly composite of 105 financial indicators.
How to read Positive = tighter than average; negative = looser. A leading indicator for growth.
A financial-conditions regime gauge — the mean of pre-standardized Fed FCIs.
How to read Already in standard-deviation units around its own history, so zero is 'average' conditions. Above zero = tighter than normal (a headwind for risk assets); below zero = looser than normal (a tailwind). The move matters more than the level — a swing up through zero is conditions actively tightening, which historically leads equity stress, while a drift lower is the all-clear.
Full-sample standardization; contemporaneous and descriptive.
Credit-equity risk coupling — the risk-on/off read.
How to read A 60-day correlation, so it lives between -1 and +1. Near +1 the two fear gauges — credit spreads and equity vol — are moving together, the signature of a broad, unified risk-off where stress is confirmed across markets. Near zero they have decoupled (idiosyncratic, not systemic). The warning is a climb from low toward +1: stress is turning cross-asset and self-reinforcing rather than a single-market wobble.
Correlation, not causation.