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Positioning

Where is the crowd positioned?
CFTC Equity Positioning

CFTC asset-manager net positioning (long − short) for S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ) and Russell 2000 (RTY) futures, as z-scores.

How Net = long − short from the CFTC report, standardized to σ.Source CFTC (CME)

cftc_equity_positioning

How to read |z| > 2 is contrarian — crowded positioning tends to reverse.

Descriptive: report net positioning vs history; positioning extremes are a crowding signal, not a timing trigger.

Equity Return Z-Score

Equity returns standardized as a z-score (SPY anchor + the two biggest non-S&P movers by |z|).

How Period return, 3-year trailing z-score (σ units).Source Yahoo Finance

equity_return_zscore

How to read |z| highlights how stretched current performance is versus its own history.

ETF Flow Z-Score

ETF trading-interest expressed as a z-score, one line per ETF across the cross-asset universe.

How Weekly $-volume proxy (Σ close×volume), standardized full-sample to σ.Source Yahoo Finance

etf_flow_zscore

How to read |z| > 2 flags unusually heavy trading interest versus the trailing norm.

Descriptive: a $-volume PROXY for flow, NOT signed directional fund flow — it captures interest concentration, not buy/sell direction.

AAII Sentiment

The AAII weekly investor sentiment survey — % bullish, % bearish, and the bull-bear spread.

aaii_sentiment

How to read Contrarian at extremes; a spread above +30 or below −30 is historically stretched.

ICI Net Equity Flows

Real equity fund/ETF flow-of-funds — weekly net flows.

How ICI combined long-term + ETF net equity flow (domestic + world), weekly.Source ICI (free)

ici_equity_flow

How to read Each bar is one week's net dollars into (above zero) or out of (below zero) equity funds and ETFs — actual money moving, not price. A single bar is noise; the signal is the run — a stack of bars above zero is sustained demand underpinning the tape, a stack below is de-risking and redemptions. Watch for flows diverging from price: persistent outflows into a rising market is a thinly-supported advance.

Weekly, estimated.

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