MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 13 November 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.86× the norm

#1Volatility

Most of the day's movement came from volatility. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 3.62 to 5.34, 5.3 times its normal pace. The equity vol premium moved from +293.8% to -94.3%. Two of its four groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 3.62 to 5.34, 5.3 times its normal pace. The GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.01 to 1.35.
  • Vol risk premiumThe equity vol premium moved from +293.8% to -94.3%, 7.0 times its normal pace. S&P realized vol moved from +19.1% to +21.1%.
  • Implied vol complex6-month implied vol (VIX6M) went from 24.70 to 21.75, 4.5 times its normal pace. VIX moved from -254.0% to +6.0%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.40 to -0.07.

#2Equities

A busy day in equities. Sector rotation velocity went from 9.21 to 5.19, 5.1 times its normal pace. Momentum factor eased to -7.8% on the month (from -15.4%).

  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 9.21 to 5.19, 5.1 times its normal pace. Sector dispersion went from 0.08 to 0.05.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor eased to -7.8% on the month (from -15.4%), 4.8 times its normal pace. Quality factor moved from +2.1% to +1.1%.
  • Equity volatilityThe equity vol premium moved from +293.8% to -94.3%, 7.0 times its normal pace. S&P realized vol moved from +19.1% to +21.1%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 293 to 300, 2.5 times its normal pace. Forward EPS revisions went from -0.05 to -0.02.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.06 to -0.03. S&P daily return moved from +0.3% to -0.4%.
  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line extended to +22.0% on the month (from +18.0%). RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from 0.03 to 0.02.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.09 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -30.6% to -31.4%.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.55 to +0.60.

#3Rates

Rates moved on several fronts. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 3.62 to 5.34, 5.3 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.9% to +2.3%.

  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 3.62 to 5.34, 5.3 times its normal pace. MOVE moved from 93 to 100.
  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.9% to +2.3%, 3.9 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +5.8% to +6.9%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningLQD ETF flows went from 1.20 to -1.43, its biggest move since October 8. ETF flows went from 2.52 to -0.74.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +4.0% to +10.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.32% to 0.24%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +3.0% to +12.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from -4.0% to +4.0%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#4FX

FX had a single story. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +3.9% to +5.9%, its biggest move since January 2026.

  • FX volatilitySterling-dollar realized vol moved from +3.9% to +5.9%, its biggest move since January 2026. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +3.6% to +5.4%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +11.9% on the month (from +9.6%), 6.0 times its normal pace. Dollar-rand realized vol moved from +7.4% to +10.6%.
  • Major pairsAUD/USD deepened to -2.6% on the month (from -0.5%), its biggest move since October 13.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.22 to -0.27. The dollar moved from +0.7% to -0.0%.
  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -1.2% on the month (from -0.1%), its biggest move since October 16.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Commodities

Commodities had a single story. Wheat realized vol moved from +14.0% to +18.3%, its biggest move since July 21.

  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +14.0% to +18.3%, its biggest move since July 21. Wheat moved from -13.5% to -11.2%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF deepened to -7.0% on the month (from -4.2%).
  • EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +48.0% to +55.2%, its biggest move since October 28. Crude moved from $90.8 to $89.5.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 58 to 52.
  • Roll yield & carryCopper futures roll drag went from +0.1pt to -0.9pt. Natgas futures roll drag sits at -8.1pt.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF deepened to -6.8% on the month (from -1.6%), its biggest move since October 30. Crude (USO) moved from +0.6% to -6.7%.
  • MetalsGold moved from $4,075 to $3,900. Gold realized vol moved from +23.0% to +24.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was LQD ETF flows, from 1.20 to -1.43.

  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from 1.20 to -1.43, its biggest move since October 8. Credit curve slope sits at 11%.
  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Crypto

Crypto was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range. The nearest mover was Bitcoin-dollar co-movement, from -0.29 to -0.19.

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.29 to -0.19, 3.4 times its normal pace. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.58 to +1.47.
  • PerformanceBitcoin moved from $75,747 to $68,903, its biggest move since September 24. Ethereum moved from $2,235 to $1,949.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply growth deepened to -4.4% on the month (from -3.5%), its biggest move since February 2025. The ETH/BTC ratio sits at 0.03.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +33.5% to +36.9%. Ethereum realized vol moved from +44.6% to +46.5%.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active-address growth moved from -0.5% to -1.8%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 337 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.3m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.7% to -0.0%. Net liquidity moved from $5.79tn to $5.84tn.

Descriptive research, not investment advice · the live lens · all days