MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 11 November 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.79× the norm

#1Rates

Rates moved more than anything else. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.8% to +2.3%, 4.8 times its normal pace. ETF flows went from 1.78 to 2.50. Two of its nine groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.8% to +2.3%, 4.8 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from +2.8% to +1.5%.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.78 to 2.50, 4.0 times its normal pace.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -33.0% to -34.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -35.0% to -31.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from -26.0% to -21.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from 2.3% to 2.2%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.80 to 4.75.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#2FX

A relationship is shifting in FX. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.12 to -0.30, 6.5 times its normal pace. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +4.2% to +6.8%.

  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.12 to -0.30, 6.5 times its normal pace. The dollar moved from -0.4% to +0.7%.
  • FX volatilitySterling-dollar realized vol moved from +4.2% to +6.8%, its biggest move since April 2025. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +4.0% to +6.3%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +11.5% on the month (from +9.8%), the biggest such move in at least four years. Dollar-rand realized vol moved from +6.9% to +9.2%.
  • Major pairsAUD/USD swung from +0.0% to -1.5% on the month, its biggest move since October 20. USD/CAD moved from -1.8% to -0.3%.
  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -0.4% on the month (from -0.1%).

#3Crypto

Crypto moved on several fronts. Ethereum moved from $2,422 to $2,052, its biggest move since August 25. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.69 to +1.37.

  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $2,422 to $2,052, its biggest move since August 25. Bitcoin moved from $80,405 to $73,457.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.69 to +1.37, 3.7 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.46 to +0.49.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading. Stablecoin supply went from 296 to 291.
  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +41.2% to +46.7%. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +30.8% to +33.2%.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active-address growth moved from +2.3% to +21.7%.

#4Volatility

Volatility had a single story. S&P realized vol moved from +12.3% to +21.1%, 8.1 times its normal pace.

  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +12.3% to +21.1%, 8.1 times its normal pace. The equity vol premium moved from +125.3% to -99.5%.
  • Implied vol complex6-month implied vol (VIX6M) went from 20.68 to 21.69. VIX moved from -4.2% to -85.0%.
  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.37. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.80 to 4.75.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from 0.23 to 0.21.

#5Equities

Only one thing moved in equities. S&P realized vol moved from +12.3% to +21.1%, 8.1 times its normal pace.

  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +12.3% to +21.1%, 8.1 times its normal pace. VIX moved from -4.2% to -85.0%.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor eased to -9.9% on the month (from -14.6%), 3.0 times its normal pace. Quality factor moved from +1.8% to +1.6%.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 9.21 to 7.05, 2.7 times its normal pace. Sector dispersion went from 0.08 to 0.07.
  • Index performanceNikkei 1-month return deepened to -11.3% on the month (from -9.0%). S&P daily return moved from +1.6% to +0.8%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 305 to 301. Forward EPS revisions went from -0.00 to -0.03.
  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line eased to +22.0% on the month (from +30.0%). RSP vs S&P, 200-day sits at 0.02.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 39.70 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -49.0% to +78.1%.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.54 to +0.59.

#6Macro

Macro had a single story. The dollar moved from -0.4% to +0.7%, 2.7 times its normal pace.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.4% to +0.7%, 2.7 times its normal pace.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 337 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.3m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

#7Commodities

Commodities stayed in range all session. The nearest mover was wheat, from -15.0% to -11.5%.

  • AgricultureWheat eased to -11.5% on the month (from -15.0%), 2.6 times its normal pace. Wheat realized vol moved from +14.9% to +14.1%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF deepened to -7.6% on the month (from -4.3%). The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +19.9% to +19.6%.
  • EnergyNat gas moved from $3.0 to $3.4, 2.7 times its normal pace. Oil realized vol moved from +52.9% to +53.9%.
  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +1.8pt to +0.7pt. Copper futures roll drag went from -0.7pt to -0.5pt.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) swung from +0.3% to -6.3% on the month.
  • MetalsSilver eased to -11.7% on the month (from -14.8%). Gold realized vol moved from +22.8% to +23.6%.
  • Commodity volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. Gold vol moved from 26 to 24.

#8Credit

No news in credit.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from 0.76 to 1.19. HY OAS moved from -1.0% to -8.0%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

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