MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 10 November 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.86× the norm

#1FX

The change in FX is in how things move together. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.07 to -0.28, 7.5 times its normal pace. USD/BRL extended to +12.1% on the month (from +4.1%). Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +5.8% to +7.6%.

  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.07 to -0.28, 7.5 times its normal pace. The dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.4%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +12.1% on the month (from +4.1%), the biggest such move in at least four years. USD/INR moved from -1.7% to -3.0%.
  • FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +5.8% to +7.6%, 4.3 times its normal pace. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +4.1% to +4.5%.
  • Major pairsAUD/USD swung from +0.7% to -1.4% on the month, its biggest move since October 21. USD/CAD moved from -1.9% to -0.7%.
  • CarryNZD/USD swung from +0.0% to -0.0% on the month.

#2Rates

A busy day in rates. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.7% to +2.2%, 4.8 times its normal pace. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 2.51.

  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.7% to +2.2%, 4.8 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from +2.5% to +1.8%.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.79 to 2.51, 4.0 times its normal pace.
  • Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 100 to 89. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.80 to 4.28.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -35.0% to -42.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -37.0% to -35.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from -33.0% to -29.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from 2.29% to 2.22%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Commodities

Commodities moved on several fronts. The broad commodity ETF moved from $32.4 to $30.5, 3.7 times its normal pace. Wheat eased to -12.5% on the month (from -13.4%).

  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF moved from $32.4 to $30.5, 3.7 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +16.3% to +19.9%.
  • AgricultureWheat eased to -12.5% on the month (from -13.4%), 2.8 times its normal pace. Wheat realized vol moved from +17.1% to +13.4%.
  • EnergyCrude moved from $96.1 to $85.3, 3.5 times its normal pace. Oil realized vol moved from +44.0% to +53.7%.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +19.5% to +23.2%. Copper realized vol moved from +20.7% to +21.6%.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) swung from +9.8% to -7.1% on the month.
  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +2.4pt to +1.9pt. Natgas futures roll drag went from -7.9pt to -8.8pt.
  • Commodity volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. Gold vol sits at 25.

#4Volatility

Only one thing moved in volatility. S&P realized vol moved from +11.1% to +20.8%, 10.0 times its normal pace.

  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +11.1% to +20.8%, 10.0 times its normal pace. The equity vol premium moved from +311.7% to -132.3%.
  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 81.02 to 64.15, its biggest move since September 29. VIX moved from -32.0% to +89.0%.
  • Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.80 to 4.28. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 2.96 to 2.87.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from 0.15 to 0.65.

#5Crypto

Only one thing moved in crypto. Ethereum realized vol moved from +32.7% to +47.0%, its biggest move since August 25.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +32.7% to +47.0%, its biggest move since August 25. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +28.6% to +33.2%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.64 to +1.38, 2.9 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.43 to +0.49.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 297 to 292, 2.8 times its normal pace. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -3.1% to -3.9%.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $2,273 to $2,076, its biggest move since October 12. The Bitcoin ETF moved from -9.3% to -10.5%.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin transaction count went from 715,023 to 412,523.

#6Equities

Equities had a single story. S&P realized vol moved from +11.1% to +20.8%, 10.0 times its normal pace.

  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +11.1% to +20.8%, 10.0 times its normal pace. VIX moved from -32.0% to +89.0%.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.03 to -0.04, 3.0 times its normal pace. S&P daily return moved from +0.4% to -0.4%.
  • Factor returnsSize factor extended to +4.5% on the month (from +1.2%). Momentum factor moved from -11.5% to -11.8%.
  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.82 to 0.64. Sector rotation velocity went from 8.85 to 8.43.
  • Market breadthSectors above 200dMA went from 0.73 to 0.64. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from 0.01 to 0.02.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 300 to 298. Forward EPS revisions went from -0.02 to -0.03.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 39.85 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -120.8% to +2.5%.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.56 to +0.58.

#7Credit

Credit was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from 0.76 to 1.19. HY OAS moved from +18.0% to -6.0%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

Macro stayed in range all session.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.4%.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 337 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.3m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

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