MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 9 November 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.84× the norm

#1Volatility

Volatility moved more than anything else. S&P realized vol moved from +11.3% to +20.0%, 8.7 times its normal pace. VIX moved from +173.0% to -3.7%. Two of its four groups moved at once.

  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +11.3% to +20.0%, 8.7 times its normal pace. The equity vol premium moved from +320.7% to +83.6%.
  • Implied vol complexVIX moved from +173.0% to -3.7%, 5.1 times its normal pace. 9-day implied vol (VIX9D) went from 22.46 to 22.95.
  • Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.75 to 4.11. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 2.96 to 2.64.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.29 to 0.38.

#2Equities

A busy day in equities. S&P realized vol moved from +11.3% to +20.0%, 8.7 times its normal pace. Sector rotation velocity went from 10.35 to 7.72.

  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +11.3% to +20.0%, 8.7 times its normal pace. VIX moved from +173.0% to -3.7%.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 10.35 to 7.72, 3.3 times its normal pace. Leading-sector count went from 8.00 to 7.00.
  • Index performanceS&P daily return moved from -0.5% to +1.7%, 3.3 times its normal pace. S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak sits at -0.04.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 38.91 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +11.2% to -211.8%.
  • Factor returnsSize factor extended to +4.6% on the month (from +1.3%). Momentum factor moved from -12.8% to -12.3%.
  • Market breadthSectors above 200dMA went from 0.73 to 0.64. RSP vs S&P, 200-day sits at 0.02.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from -0.03 to -0.04. Forward EPS went from 299 to 297.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.56 to +0.58.

#3FX

A relationship is shifting in FX. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.06 to -0.22, its biggest move since July 8. USD/BRL extended to +10.6% on the month (from +4.1%).

  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.06 to -0.22, its biggest move since July 8. The dollar moved from -0.1% to -0.3%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +10.6% on the month (from +4.1%), the biggest such move in at least four years. Dollar-rand realized vol moved from +6.7% to +7.2%.
  • FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +5.7% to +7.0%, 3.1 times its normal pace. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +3.9% to +3.4%.
  • Major pairsGBP/USD extended to +1.5% on the month (from +1.4%). USD/CAD moved from -1.8% to -1.1%.
  • CarryNZD/USD held at +0.4% at the latest reading.

#4Crypto

Crypto had a single story. Ethereum realized vol moved from +33.2% to +46.0%, its biggest move since October 20.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +33.2% to +46.0%, its biggest move since October 20. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +28.7% to +33.2%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.43 to +0.50, 3.1 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.44 to +0.49.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 298 to 293, 2.8 times its normal pace. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -2.8% to -3.8%.
  • PerformanceThe Bitcoin ETF deepened to -10.5% on the month (from -9.2%), its biggest move since September 21. Bitcoin moved from -9.3% to -10.2%.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin transaction count went from 578,943 to 414,323.

#5Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 2.52, 4.0 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.79 to 2.52, 4.0 times its normal pace.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to +2.6% on the month (from +2.8%), 3.0 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.7% to +1.9%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.75 to 4.11. MOVE moved from 100 to 90.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -28.0% to -43.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -31.0% to -39.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from -28.0% to -31.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from 2.34% to 2.23%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Commodities

Commodities had a single story. Wheat realized vol moved from +18.3% to +13.6%, 3.1 times its normal pace.

  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +18.3% to +13.6%, 3.1 times its normal pace. Wheat moved from -11.2% to -11.7%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF moved from $32.5 to $31.1, 2.6 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +16.4% to +19.1%.
  • EnergyCrude moved from $96.5 to $87.5, 3.0 times its normal pace. Oil realized vol moved from +44.6% to +52.9%.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +19.4% to +22.9%. Copper realized vol moved from +19.5% to +21.8%.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 63 to 58. Gold vol sits at 25.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) swung from +6.4% to -6.1% on the month.
  • Roll yield & carryCopper futures roll drag went from -1.2pt to -0.7pt. Natgas futures roll drag went from -8.1pt to -9.2pt.

#7Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from 0.76 to 1.20. HY OAS moved from +18.0% to -6.0%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

Macro was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to -0.3%. Net liquidity moved from $5.75tn to $5.79tn.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.3m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

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