Cross-asset conditions, 4 November 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.68× the norm
Most of the day's movement came from equities. Quality factor swung from -1.1% to +1.6% on the month, its biggest move since July 9. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.01. Sector rotation velocity went from 5.10 to 8.20. VIX moved from -61.0% to -3.6%. Four of its eight groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.
- Factor returnsQuality factor swung from -1.1% to +1.6% on the month, its biggest move since July 9. Momentum factor moved from -5.2% to -13.8%.
- Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.01, 3.6 times its normal pace. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.28 to 0.29.
- Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 5.10 to 8.20, 4.0 times its normal pace. Leading-sector count went from 3.00 to 7.00.
- Equity volatilityVIX moved from -61.0% to -3.6%, its biggest move since June 5. S&P realized vol moved from +9.6% to +12.4%.
- Index performanceS&P daily return moved from +0.3% to +1.7%, 3.3 times its normal pace. S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.01 to -0.02.
- Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.04 to -0.00. Forward EPS went from 307 to 305.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.13 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -1.2% to -49.0%.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.52 to +0.55.
Commodities moved on several fronts. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +12.2% to +16.5%, its biggest move since March 2026. Gold realized vol moved from +15.0% to +22.0%.
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +12.2% to +16.5%, its biggest move since March 2026. The broad commodity ETF moved from $33.8 to $32.1.
- MetalsGold realized vol moved from +15.0% to +22.0%, its biggest move since June 15. Silver moved from -11.9% to -14.6%.
- AgricultureWheat deepened to -14.1% on the month (from -13.5%), its biggest move since September 10. Wheat realized vol moved from +19.2% to +15.8%.
- Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from -1.8pt to -8.5pt, 4.2 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.2pt to +1.3pt.
- EnergyCrude moved from $102.8 to $93.4, its biggest move since October 19. Oil realized vol moved from +36.4% to +45.3%.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 23 to 24. Oil vol moved from 59 to 58.
- ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +5.7% on the month (from +16.2%). The gold ETF moved from -2.4% to -3.2%.
Volatility had a single story. VIX moved from -61.0% to -3.6%, its biggest move since June 5.
- Implied vol complexVIX moved from -61.0% to -3.6%, its biggest move since June 5. The VIX/VIX6M term ratio went from 0.80 to 0.82.
- Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +9.6% to +12.4%, its biggest move since September 2. The gold vol premium moved from +7.9% to +228.7%.
- Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.33 to +0.38. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.59 to 5.58.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from 0.18 to 0.23.
Rates had a single story. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026.
- Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026. The 1-3y Treasury ETF sits at +0.4%.
- Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.80 to 1.63, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 95 to 96. Rate realized vol moved from +84.9% to +83.9%.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -18.0% to -33.0%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -16.0% to -35.0%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from -33.0% to -34.0%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens sits at +1.0%.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.
The change in FX is in how things move together. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.14 to -0.04, 3.6 times its normal pace.
- DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.14 to -0.04, 3.6 times its normal pace. The dollar moved from -0.2% to -0.4%.
- Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +9.7% on the month (from +2.4%), its biggest move since July 2024. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +34.0% to +29.9%.
- Major pairsUSD/CAD deepened to -2.2% on the month (from -0.9%), its biggest move since October 14. GBP/USD moved from +0.4% to +2.0%.
- CarryNZD/USD extended to +0.6% on the month (from +0.3%).
- FX volatilitySterling-dollar realized vol moved from +4.7% to +4.4%. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.0% to +5.8%.
A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 0.27 to 1.08. HY OAS moved from -12.0% to -3.0%.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
Little happened in crypto. The nearest mover was stablecoin supply, from 302 to 295.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 302 to 295, its biggest move since October 2025. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -2.0% to -3.6%.
- Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +23.8% to +29.6%, 3.2 times its normal pace. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +22.4% to +26.8%.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.72 to +1.58. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.42 to +0.45.
- PerformanceBitcoin deepened to -7.5% on the month (from -2.8%).
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group.
Macro stayed in range all session. The nearest mover was the dollar, from -0.2% to -0.4%.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.2% to -0.4%, its biggest move since October 7.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.