Cross-asset conditions, 3 November 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.99× the norm
Equities moved more than anything else. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.02, 3.8 times its normal pace. Sector rotation velocity went from 4.92 to 9.22. Forward EPS revisions went from 0.06 to -0.02. Momentum factor deepened to -11.2% on the month (from -5.6%). Four of its eight groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.
- Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.02, 3.8 times its normal pace. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.28 to 0.29.
- Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 4.92 to 9.22, 5.4 times its normal pace. Leading-sector count went from 3.00 to 8.00.
- Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.06 to -0.02, its biggest move since July 2025. Forward EPS went from 306 to 300.
- Factor returnsMomentum factor deepened to -11.2% on the month (from -5.6%), 3.7 times its normal pace. Quality factor moved from -0.4% to +0.9%.
- Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.01 to -0.03, 2.6 times its normal pace. S&P daily return moved from +0.6% to +0.3%.
- Equity volatilityVIX moved from 18 to 21, its biggest move since October 19.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.13 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -16.3% to -120.8%.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.48 to +0.56.
Rates moved on several fronts. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63.
- Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.7%, its biggest move since March 2026. The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from +0.4% to +0.5%.
- Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.59 to 4.77, its biggest move since October 16. Rate realized vol moved from +88.9% to +84.6%.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -11.0% to -35.0%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -16.0% to -37.0%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from -31.0% to -48.0%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +0.0% to -5.0%.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.
Commodities moved on several fronts. Wheat deepened to -13.4% on the month (from -11.4%), 3.0 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +13.5% to +16.4%.
- AgricultureWheat deepened to -13.4% on the month (from -11.4%), 3.0 times its normal pace.
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +13.5% to +16.4%, 2.7 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF moved from $33.6 to $32.4.
- Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from -0.6pt to -7.4pt, 4.3 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.4pt to +1.5pt.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 23 to 26, its biggest move since September 23. Oil vol moved from 55 to 63.
- MetalsGold realized vol moved from +15.0% to +19.4%, its biggest move since June 16. Copper realized vol moved from +18.1% to +19.9%.
- EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +42.7% to +48.1%. Crude moved from +7.9% to +7.5%.
- ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +9.1% on the month (from +9.2%). The gold ETF moved from -1.5% to -4.8%.
Only one thing moved in crypto. Stablecoin supply went from 302 to 296, its biggest move since October 2025.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 302 to 296, its biggest move since October 2025. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -2.0% to -3.3%.
- Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +23.5% to +28.0%. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +22.3% to +25.0%.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.34 to -0.28, its biggest move since October 7. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.53 to +1.64.
- PerformanceBitcoin deepened to -10.0% on the month (from -3.2%), its biggest move since September 16.
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner revenue went from 49,242,369 to 41,266,369.
A relationship is shifting in FX. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.21 to -0.07, its biggest move since July 8.
- DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.21 to -0.07, its biggest move since July 8.
- Major pairsUSD/CAD deepened to -1.9% on the month (from -1.0%), its biggest move since October 15. EUR/USD moved from -1.8% to -0.5%.
- Emerging marketsUSD/BRL extended to +5.3% on the month (from +3.6%), its biggest move since June 11. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +34.0% to +34.1%.
- CarryNZD/USD swung from +0.6% to +0.1% on the month.
- FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +4.8% to +5.0%. Aussie-dollar realized vol sits at +6.0%.
A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 0.27 to 1.08. HY OAS moved from -2.0% to +18.0%.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
Macro stayed in range all session.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.4% to +0.0%. Net liquidity moved from $5.80tn to $5.75tn.
No news in volatility. The nearest mover was the MOVE/VIX ratio, from 5.59 to 4.77.
- Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.59 to 4.77, its biggest move since October 16. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.32 to +0.37.
- Implied vol complexThe VIX/VIX6M term ratio went from 0.82 to 0.93, its biggest move since October 19. VIX moved from -87.0% to -23.0%.
- Vol risk premiumThe equity vol premium moved from +214.2% to +316.5%, its biggest move since October 16. Rate realized vol moved from +88.9% to +84.6%.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from 0.42 to 0.15.