Cross-asset conditions, 2 November 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.62× the norm
Most of the day's movement came from rates. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.4% to +1.7%, its biggest move since September 3. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63. A second straight session at the top.
- Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.4% to +1.7%, its biggest move since September 3. The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from +0.3% to +0.5%.
- Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.63, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.56 to 5.36. Rate realized vol moved from +102.4% to +85.6%.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from -6.0% to -28.0%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -14.0% to -31.0%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.33% to 2.31%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.2% to 2.22%.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.
A busy day in equities. Sector rotation velocity went from 5.56 to 9.29, 4.7 times its normal pace. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.01.
- Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 5.56 to 9.29, 4.7 times its normal pace. Leading-sector count went from 3.00 to 6.00.
- Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.01, 2.8 times its normal pace. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.28 to 0.29.
- Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.03 to -0.01, its biggest move since September 22. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
- Factor returnsMomentum factor deepened to -11.6% on the month (from -6.8%), 3.1 times its normal pace. Quality factor moved from +0.8% to +0.9%.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.13 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +14.1% to +11.2%.
- Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak held at -0.02 at the latest reading. S&P daily return moved from +0.7% to +0.6%.
- Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +9.8% to +11.4%. VIX moved from -106.0% to -56.0%.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.48 to +0.52.
The change in FX is in how things move together. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.17 to -0.06, its biggest move since July 9. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +17.9% to +33.9%.
- DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.17 to -0.06, its biggest move since July 9. The dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.3%.
- Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +17.9% to +33.9%, 11.6 times its normal pace. USD/MXN moved from +5.5% to +1.7%.
- Major pairsGBP/USD extended to +1.7% on the month (from +1.3%), its biggest move since October 15. USD/CAD moved from -0.7% to -1.8%.
- FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.3% to +4.8%. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.0% to +5.7%.
- CarryNZD/USD eased to +0.6% on the month (from +0.8%).
A busy day in commodities. Natgas futures roll drag went from +4.5pt to -9.2pt, its biggest move since March 2026.
- Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from +4.5pt to -9.2pt, its biggest move since March 2026. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.9pt to +1.1pt.
- AgricultureWheat eased to -11.1% on the month (from -12.4%).
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF moved from $33.8 to $32.8, its biggest move since September 22. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +13.4% to +14.4%.
- EnergyNat gas moved from $2.6 to $2.9, 2.5 times its normal pace. Natural-gas realized vol moved from +44.2% to +48.3%.
- MetalsSilver eased to -14.9% on the month (from -15.8%). Copper realized vol moved from +18.2% to +19.5%.
- ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +7.7% on the month (from +12.1%). The gold ETF moved from -6.5% to -4.5%.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 25.
Only one thing moved in crypto. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +23.2% to +29.3%, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +23.2% to +29.3%, 3.4 times its normal pace. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +33.5% to +37.7%.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 302 to 298, its biggest move since October 2025. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -1.6% to -2.8%.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.45 to +1.61. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.40 to +0.42.
- PerformanceBitcoin deepened to -8.1% on the month (from -4.8%).
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin transaction count went from 808,860 to 642,252.
A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 0.27 to 1.09. CCC credit went from +2.5pt to +1.5pt.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
No news in macro.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.3%. Net liquidity moved from $5.80tn to $5.75tn.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
Little happened in volatility. The nearest mover was vol complex co-movement, from +0.31 to +0.37.
- Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.31 to +0.37, 3.0 times its normal pace. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 3.19 to 3.13.
- Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +9.8% to +11.4%. Rate realized vol moved from +102.4% to +85.6%.
- Implied vol complexThe VIX term-structure slope went from 0.03 to 0.04. VIX moved from -106.0% to -56.0%.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group.