Cross-asset conditions, 30 October 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.66× the norm
Rates moved more than anything else. ETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.62, 3.4 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF extended to +0.7% on the month (from +0.5%).
- Flows & positioningETF flows went from 1.79 to 1.62, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF extended to +0.7% on the month (from +0.5%), its biggest move since October 5. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from +1.5% to +2.8%.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 103 to 100.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year Treasury yield moved from 5.42% to 5.37%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from -6.0% to -21.0%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.55% to 2.36%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.19% to 2.23%.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.
A busy day in commodities. Natgas futures roll drag went from +2.9pt to -7.8pt, its biggest move since March 2026. Wheat moved hard.
- Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from +2.9pt to -7.8pt, its biggest move since March 2026. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.6pt to +1.7pt.
- AgricultureWheat held at -11.6% at the latest reading.
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +14.4% to +11.4%, its biggest move since October 15. The broad commodity ETF moved from +2.8% to +2.6%.
- ETF flowsCrude (USO) extended to +12.5% on the month (from +10.7%). The gold ETF moved from -6.4% to -7.0%.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 26. Oil vol moved from 60 to 58.
- MetalsSilver deepened to -19.1% on the month (from -15.4%), its biggest move since August 27. Copper realized vol moved from +18.1% to +18.7%.
- EnergyCrude extended to +10.9% on the month (from +9.2%). Nat gas moved from $2.6 to $2.9.
Equities moved on several fronts. Leading-sector count went from 3.00 to 7.00, its biggest move since August 4. S&P daily return moved from -0.5% to -1.8%.
- Sector rotationLeading-sector count went from 3.00 to 7.00, its biggest move since August 4. Sector rotation velocity went from 6.25 to 9.09.
- Index performanceS&P daily return moved from -0.5% to -1.8%, its biggest move since June 5. S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.02 to -0.03.
- Market breadthThe advance-decline line extended to +50.0% on the month (from +25.0%), its biggest move since October 1. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.01 to 0.01.
- Equity volatilityVIX moved from +42.0% to +222.0%, 3.2 times its normal pace. S&P realized vol moved from +9.6% to +11.5%.
- Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.03 to -0.00, its biggest move since September 29. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
- Factor returnsSize factor swung from -1.2% to +1.1% on the month. Quality factor moved from +1.1% to +0.7%.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.88 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.03.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.48 to +0.52.
Only one thing moved in crypto. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +22.7% to +28.7%, 3.4 times its normal pace.
- Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +22.7% to +28.7%, 3.4 times its normal pace. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +21.6% to +25.7%.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.41 to +1.66, 2.9 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.43.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 303 to 300, its biggest move since June 10. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -1.1% to -2.3%.
- PerformanceBitcoin moved from $81,074 to $76,820, its biggest move since September 24. The Bitcoin ETF moved from -3.9% to -9.6%.
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active-address growth moved from -11.5% to +11.3%.
Only one thing moved in FX. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +17.2% to +34.3%, its biggest move since October 12.
- Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +17.2% to +34.3%, its biggest move since October 12. USD/MXN moved from +6.7% to +4.0%.
- Major pairsUSD/CAD deepened to -1.9% on the month (from -0.7%), its biggest move since October 15. EUR/USD sits at -1.4%.
- DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.13 to -0.09. The dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.1%.
- FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.4% to +4.9%. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.1% to +5.7%.
- CarryNZD/USD swung from +0.2% to +0.0% on the month.
Little happened in credit.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 0.27 to 1.06. CCC credit went from +2.5pt to +1.5pt.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
Macro was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.1%. Net liquidity moved from $5.80tn to $5.75tn.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
A calm day in volatility. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was vol complex co-movement, from +0.30 to +0.38.
- Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.30 to +0.38, 3.6 times its normal pace. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 3.09 to 3.01.
- Implied vol complexVIX moved from +42.0% to +222.0%, 3.2 times its normal pace. MOVE moved from 103 to 100.
- Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +9.6% to +11.5%, its biggest move since September 3. The oil vol premium moved from +22.0% to +22.5%.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. Euro-area systemic stress went from 0.02 to 0.01.