Cross-asset conditions, 29 October 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.53× the norm
Rates moved more than anything else. ETF flows went from 0.47 to 1.80, 3.8 times its normal pace. MOVE moved from 107 to 93. The long-Treasury ETF extended to +4.6% on the month (from +1.6%).
- Flows & positioningETF flows went from 0.47 to 1.80, 3.8 times its normal pace. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 107 to 93, its biggest move since September 30.
- Term premium & durationThe long-Treasury ETF extended to +4.6% on the month (from +1.6%), its biggest move since October 8. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from +1.1% to +2.1%.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.94% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year Treasury yield moved from 5.42% to 5.3%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from 0.88% to 0.87%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.55% to 2.37%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.34% to 2.27%.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.
Equities moved on several fronts. The advance-decline line extended to +48.0% on the month (from +25.0%), its biggest move since October 1. Quality factor swung from +1.6% to +0.1% on the month.
- Market breadthThe advance-decline line extended to +48.0% on the month (from +25.0%), its biggest move since October 1. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.00 to -0.01.
- Factor returnsQuality factor swung from +1.6% to +0.1% on the month, 3.1 times its normal pace. Size factor moved from -1.4% to +1.4%.
- Sector rotationSector leadership persistence went from 0.26 to 0.04, 2.8 times its normal pace. Sector rotation velocity went from 6.19 to 6.53.
- Index performanceHang Seng 1-month return eased to -6.8% on the month (from -8.4%). S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.02 to -0.01.
- Equity volatilityVVIX went from 108 to 96.19. SKEW went from 150 to 149.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.04 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.03.
- Forward earningsForward EPS went from 304 to 306. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.42 to +0.52.
Commodities moved on several fronts. Wheat eased to -11.7% on the month (from -11.8%), 2.6 times its normal pace. Natgas futures roll drag went from -1.5pt to -7.9pt.
- AgricultureWheat eased to -11.7% on the month (from -11.8%), 2.6 times its normal pace.
- Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from -1.5pt to -7.9pt, 4.0 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.3pt to +2.6pt.
- ETF flowsCrude (USO) extended to +13.2% on the month (from +9.2%). The gold ETF moved from -6.1% to -3.2%.
- EnergyCrude extended to +10.6% on the month (from +7.9%). Nat gas moved from $2.8 to $2.9.
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF extended to +3.4% on the month (from +2.1%). The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +13.7% to +12.7%.
- MetalsGold realized vol moved from +18.0% to +14.9%, its biggest move since October 7. Copper realized vol moved from +16.9% to +18.5%.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 23. Oil vol sits at 56.
Crypto had a single story. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.33 to +1.74, 4.8 times its normal pace.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.33 to +1.74, 4.8 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.38 to +0.44.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 304 to 300, its biggest move since July 1. Stablecoin supply growth moved from -0.7% to -2.3%.
- Crypto volatilityThe Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +32.4% to +34.6%. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +21.6% to +22.7%.
- PerformanceEthereum deepened to -13.4% on the month (from -11.1%).
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +25.7% to -7.6%.
Only one thing moved in FX. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +17.6% to +33.9%, 12.1 times its normal pace.
- Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +17.6% to +33.9%, 12.1 times its normal pace. USD/MXN moved from +8.1% to +4.1%.
- FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +7.1% to +5.9%. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +4.5% to +4.9%.
- Major pairsEUR/USD eased to -1.8% on the month (from -1.9%). USD/CAD moved from -0.2% to -1.3%.
- CarryNZD/USD deepened to -0.4% on the month (from -0.3%).
- DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.15 to -0.13. The dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.1%.
Credit was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from -0.03 to 0.65. CCC credit went from +2.5pt to +1.8pt.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
Little happened in macro.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 121% at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.1%. Adjusted financial conditions went from -0.51 to -0.50.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.61tn at the latest reading. It still sits near multi-year highs.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
A calm day in volatility. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was vol complex co-movement, from +0.30 to +0.35.
- Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.30 to +0.35. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 2.92 to 3.31.
- Implied vol complexMOVE moved from 107 to 93, its biggest move since September 30. SKEW went from 150 to 149.
- Vol risk premiumThe equity vol premium moved from +272.4% to +191.1%. The oil vol premium moved from +18.7% to +17.7%.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index went from -1.88 to -1.91.