MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 26 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.66× the norm

#1Crypto

Most of the day's movement came from crypto. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.14 to +1.77, its biggest move since February 2026. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +31.0% to +22.2%. Two of its five groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin beta to the S&P went from +1.14 to +1.77, its biggest move since February 2026. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.34 to +0.43.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin realized vol moved from +31.0% to +22.2%, 3.8 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +28.8% to +23.4%.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 305 to 302. The ETH/BTC ratio (1-month change) moved from -9.0% to -9.7%.
  • PerformanceEthereum deepened to -14.0% on the month (from -7.9%), its biggest move since September 16.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +12.1% to +42.8%.

#2Equities

A busy day in equities. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.03 to -0.00, 3.1 times its normal pace. Sector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.36 to 0.73.

  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.03 to -0.00, 3.1 times its normal pace. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.28 to 0.29.
  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.36 to 0.73, its biggest move since September 10. Sector rotation velocity went from 4.09 to 6.62.
  • Factor returnsQuality factor swung from +2.1% to +0.3% on the month, its biggest move since August 27. Momentum factor moved from -5.1% to -8.0%.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.36 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.03.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak held at -0.02 at the latest reading. Hang Seng 1-month return moved from -2.1% to -5.3%.
  • Equity volatilityVIX moved from -155.0% to -72.0%. VVIX went from 107 to 105.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 305 to 304. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.38 to +0.48.

#3Volatility

The change in volatility is in how things move together. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.23 to +0.33, its biggest move since October 7.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.23 to +0.33, its biggest move since October 7. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 5.49 to 5.56.
  • Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from +13.1% to +24.7%, its biggest move since September 22. Rate realized vol moved from +88.8% to +102.4%.
  • Implied vol complexOil vol moved from 50 to 59, its biggest move since September 15. VIX moved from -155.0% to -72.0%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index went from -1.87 to -1.48.

#4Commodities

A busy day in commodities. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +14.9% to +11.6%, its biggest move since July 31.

  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +14.9% to +11.6%, its biggest move since July 31. The broad commodity ETF moved from +2.3% to +5.8%.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $655.2 to $619.8, 2.5 times its normal pace.
  • EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +52.0% to +62.5%, its biggest move since September 30. Nat gas moved from $3.1 to $3.0.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 50 to 59, its biggest move since September 15. Gold vol moved from 22 to 24.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) extended to +16.2% on the month (from +4.5%), its biggest move since September 25. The gold ETF moved from -5.4% to -4.3%.
  • Roll yield & carryNatgas futures roll drag went from -4.5pt to -8.9pt, 2.7 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.2pt to +2.5pt.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +17.3% to +14.1%, its biggest move since October 7. Copper realized vol moved from +15.8% to +17.1%.

#5Rates

Rates had a single story. ETF flows went from 0.47 to 1.79, 3.8 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 0.47 to 1.79, 3.8 times its normal pace. HYG ETF flows went from 1.48 to 0.27.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +6.0% to +5.0%, its biggest move since September 25. The long-Treasury ETF moved from -2.2% to +4.5%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 101 to 104. Rate realized vol moved from +88.8% to +102.4%.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from -9.0% to -17.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.35% to 0.31%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.58% to 2.33%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.33% to 2.2%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#6FX

Only one thing moved in FX. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +17.7% to +36.0%, its biggest move since October 12.

  • Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +17.7% to +36.0%, its biggest move since October 12. USD/MXN moved from +7.4% to +3.8%.
  • FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.8% to +6.0%. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +4.6% to +5.0%.
  • Major pairsEUR/USD eased to -1.7% on the month (from -2.2%). AUD/USD moved from -2.0% to -0.0%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.12 to -0.15. The dollar moved from +0.3% to +0.2%.
  • CarryNZD/USD swung from -1.2% to +0.2% on the month.

#7Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from -0.02 to 0.65. CCC credit went from +2.0pt to +2.5pt.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.3% to +0.2%. Net liquidity moved from $5.87tn to $5.80tn.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

Descriptive research, not investment advice · the live lens · all days