MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 14 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.49× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. EUR/USD deepened to -3.7% on the month (from -3.2%), 2.8 times its normal pace. NZD/USD eased to -3.5% on the month (from -4.4%). The dollar moved from +0.5% to +0.7%. USD/MXN extended to +8.5% on the month (from +6.0%). Two of its six groups moved at once. A 6th straight session at the top.

  • Major pairsEUR/USD deepened to -3.7% on the month (from -3.2%), 2.8 times its normal pace. USD/CAD moved from +3.0% to +2.8%.
  • CarryNZD/USD eased to -3.5% on the month (from -4.4%).
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.5% to +0.7%, its biggest move since August 19. The broad dollar index moved from +285.5% to +3.5%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/MXN extended to +8.5% on the month (from +6.0%), its biggest move since June 2024. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +16.9% to +17.5%.
  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +6.1% to +4.8%, 3.2 times its normal pace. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +3.8% to +4.0%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Commodities

A busy day in commodities. Copper realized vol moved from +24.2% to +16.7%, 4.7 times its normal pace. Wheat realized vol moved from +25.7% to +19.9%.

  • MetalsCopper realized vol moved from +24.2% to +16.7%, 4.7 times its normal pace. Gold realized vol moved from +16.2% to +16.9%.
  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +25.7% to +19.9%, 2.7 times its normal pace. Wheat moved from $686.5 to $667.8.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +18.4% to +15.3%, its biggest move since September 16. The broad commodity ETF moved from $32.5 to $33.4.
  • Roll yield & carryCopper futures roll drag went from +0.2pt to -1.3pt, 2.8 times its normal pace. Wheat futures roll drag went from -1.6pt to +0.2pt.
  • EnergyCrude moved from $88.3 to $95.4, its biggest move since September 23. Oil realized vol moved from +44.4% to +34.4%.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF eased to -4.9% on the month (from -6.0%).
  • Commodity volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. ETF flows went from 3.34 to 1.97, 3.2 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 3.34 to 1.97, 3.2 times its normal pace. HYG ETF flows went from 4.66 to 0.47.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -1.9% on the month (from -3.3%). 10-year term premium (zero-coupon) moved from +18.6% to +12.5%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 7.01 to 6.64. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.31 to 1.22.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +49.0% to +29.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from 1.09% to 0.95%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +47.0% to +36.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens sits at +0.0%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Macro

Only one thing moved in macro. The dollar moved from +0.5% to +0.7%, its biggest move since August 19.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.5% to +0.7%, its biggest move since August 19.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 336 at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

#5Credit

Little happened in credit.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 4.66 to 0.47. Credit curve slope moved from 10% to 11%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Crypto

A calm day in crypto. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +37.4% to +35.0%. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +43.6% to +42.1%.
  • PerformanceBitcoin extended to +8.9% on the month (from +6.2%). Ethereum moved from $2,574 to $2,454.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.29 to -0.33. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement sits at +0.35.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin transaction count went from 899,894 to 838,363.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Equities

No news in equities.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.84 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +25.3% to -5.4%.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.06 to -0.04, its biggest move since September 25. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P sits at 0.27.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 3.54 to 2.03. Sector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.27 to 0.36.
  • Factor returnsQuality factor extended to +1.2% on the month (from +0.6%). Momentum factor moved from +2.7% to +0.7%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 309 to 308.
  • Index performanceS&P daily return moved from -0.2% to -0.6%. Hang Seng 1-month return moved from -5.0% to -2.4%.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 83.18 to 88.10. SKEW went from 141 to 155.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.37 to +0.39.

#8Volatility

Volatility stayed in range all session.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.24 to +0.26.
  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 62.00 to 53.97. SKEW went from 141 to 155.
  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +10.0% to +9.4%. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.31 to 1.22.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. Euro-area systemic stress went from 0.02 to 0.01.

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