MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 13 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.50× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +8.2% to +4.9%, 6.1 times its normal pace. EUR/USD eased to -3.1% on the month (from -3.4%). NZD/USD eased to -2.9% on the month (from -4.8%). USD/MXN extended to +7.1% on the month (from +7.0%). A fifth straight session at the top.

  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +8.2% to +4.9%, 6.1 times its normal pace. Euro-dollar realized vol moved from +3.6% to +4.3%.
  • Major pairsEUR/USD eased to -3.1% on the month (from -3.4%). USD/CAD moved from +3.1% to +2.4%.
  • CarryNZD/USD eased to -2.9% on the month (from -4.8%).
  • Emerging marketsUSD/MXN extended to +7.1% on the month (from +7.0%), 4.5 times its normal pace. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +16.9% to +17.0%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.14 to -0.18, its biggest move since September 25. The dollar sits at -0.3%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Commodities

Commodities moved on several fronts. Copper realized vol moved from +25.4% to +16.7%, 5.2 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +19.0% to +15.2%.

  • MetalsCopper realized vol moved from +25.4% to +16.7%, 5.2 times its normal pace. Gold realized vol moved from +16.1% to +16.5%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +19.0% to +15.2%, its biggest move since August 27. The broad commodity ETF moved from $32.7 to $33.4.
  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +25.5% to +20.5%. Wheat moved from $704.2 to $678.5.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from -2.1pt to +0.5pt, its biggest move since August 28. Copper futures roll drag went from +0.2pt to -1.3pt.
  • EnergyOil realized vol moved from +44.7% to +33.7%, its biggest move since September 16. Crude moved from -2.2% to -12.0%.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) swung from +2.1% to -6.7% on the month. The gold ETF moved from -6.0% to -3.0%.
  • Commodity volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Sector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.18 to 0.45, its biggest move since September 10. Momentum factor swung from +4.9% to +0.9% on the month.

  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.18 to 0.45, its biggest move since September 10. Sector rotation velocity went from 3.56 to 2.04.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from +4.9% to +0.9% on the month, 2.7 times its normal pace. Low-vol factor moved from -2.4% to -1.6%.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.85 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +23.8% to -61.8%.
  • Market breadthSectors above 200dMA went from 0.36 to 0.45. The advance-decline line moved from -22.0% to +3.0%.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +10.2% to +9.1%, its biggest move since September 25. SKEW went from 143 to 155.
  • Index performanceS&P 500 1-month return extended to +2.9% on the month (from +1.3%), its biggest move since August 28. Nikkei 1-month return moved from +9.9% to +3.8%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions held at 0.04 at the latest reading. Forward EPS sits at 310.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.33 to +0.38.

#4Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. ETF flows went from 3.37 to 1.98, 3.2 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 3.37 to 1.98, 3.2 times its normal pace. HYG ETF flows went from 4.72 to 0.47.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.7% to +1.5%. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from -3.4% to -1.4%.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 7.01 to 6.63. MOVE moved from 105 to 101.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +45.0% to +39.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.45% to 0.44%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +44.0% to +41.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +0.0% to -2.0%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Credit

Credit was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 4.72 to 0.47. Credit curve slope moved from 10% to 11%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Crypto

Crypto stayed in range all session.

  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $2,698 to $2,500. Bitcoin moved from $85,558 to $83,168.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +36.8% to +34.6%. Ethereum realized vol moved from +39.4% to +41.5%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.29 to -0.32. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.35.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +5.5% to +18.1%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

A calm day in macro. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar held at -0.3% at the latest reading. Net liquidity moved from $5.78tn to $5.86tn.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

#8Volatility

No news in volatility. The nearest mover was the vol complex gauge, from 62.33 to 49.27.

  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 62.33 to 49.27, its biggest move since September 29. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 17.34 to 14.58.
  • Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 7.01 to 6.63. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.25 to +0.26.
  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +10.2% to +9.1%, its biggest move since September 25. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.32 to 1.14.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.19 to -0.14.

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