MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 9 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.48× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. NZD/USD eased to -4.1% on the month (from -4.3%). Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +10.9% to +6.0%. EUR/USD deepened to -3.8% on the month (from -2.9%). Three of its six groups moved at once. A third straight session at the top.

  • CarryNZD/USD eased to -4.1% on the month (from -4.3%).
  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +10.9% to +6.0%, 6.8 times its normal pace. Euro-dollar realized vol sits at +3.9%.
  • Major pairsEUR/USD deepened to -3.8% on the month (from -2.9%), its biggest move since March 2026. USD/CAD moved from +2.5% to +3.5%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/INR eased to +1.7% on the month (from +1.8%). Dollar-real realized vol moved from +8.6% to +17.0%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from -0.2% to +0.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Rates

A busy day in rates. The 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -2.1% on the month (from -3.4%). Net interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading.

  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -2.1% on the month (from -3.4%). The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from -0.7% to -0.3%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from 3.43 to 1.17. HYG ETF flows went from 4.87 to -0.00.
  • Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 107 to 99. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 7.01 to 6.58.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +54.0% to +48.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.46% to 0.47%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield sits at +49.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.36% to 2.33%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Volatility

A relationship is shifting in volatility. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.33 to +0.26, 3.9 times its normal pace.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.33 to +0.26, 3.9 times its normal pace. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 7.01 to 6.58.
  • Implied vol complexMOVE moved from 107 to 99. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 17.91 to 15.51.
  • Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from +6.7% to +11.2%. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.41 to 1.23.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.33 to 0.04.

#4Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Momentum factor swung from +7.8% to +2.3% on the month, 3.9 times its normal pace.

  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from +7.8% to +2.3% on the month, 3.9 times its normal pace. Value factor moved from -4.8% to -5.3%.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 4.06 to 2.09, its biggest move since September 24. Cyclicals vs defensives went from 0.00 to -0.02.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.62 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -36.0% to -4.6%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 306 to 309.
  • Market breadthSectors above 200dMA went from 0.27 to 0.36. The advance-decline line moved from -45.0% to -10.0%.
  • Index performanceHang Seng 1-month return eased to -4.2% on the month (from -5.3%). Nikkei 1-month return moved from +3.0% to +4.0%.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +10.5% to +9.7%, its biggest move since September 25. VVIX went from 87.02 to 86.34.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.33 to +0.38.

#5Crypto

Crypto had a single story. Ethereum realized vol moved from +40.1% to +44.8%, its biggest move since September 23.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +40.1% to +44.8%, its biggest move since September 23. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +42.2% to +37.9%.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.35. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.32 to -0.28.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $2,668 to $2,485.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner-revenue growth moved from +14.6% to +22.7%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Commodities

Only one thing moved in commodities. Copper realized vol moved from +25.2% to +20.0%, its biggest move since September 16.

  • MetalsCopper realized vol moved from +25.2% to +20.0%, its biggest move since September 16. Gold realized vol moved from +19.4% to +16.8%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +18.7% to +16.4%, its biggest move since September 16. The broad commodity ETF moved from $32.5 to $33.0.
  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +26.5% to +23.5%. Wheat moved from -9.5% to -5.4%.
  • EnergyCrude swung from +0.1% to -10.7% on the month. Oil realized vol moved from +44.3% to +37.6%.
  • Roll yield & carryCopper futures roll drag went from +0.1pt to -0.6pt. Natgas futures roll drag went from -5.3pt to -4.0pt.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) swung from +4.4% to -6.7% on the month. The gold ETF moved from -5.6% to -3.0%.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 51 to 49.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Credit

Credit stayed in range all session.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexLQD ETF flows went from 2.14 to -0.35. HYG ETF flows went from 4.87 to -0.00.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.2% to +0.2%. Net liquidity moved from $5.78tn to $5.86tn.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

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