MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 7 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.55× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. NZD/USD moved hard, 2.8 times its normal pace. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +8.7% to +17.0%. USD/CAD extended to +3.3% on the month (from +2.5%). Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.2% to +6.1%. Four of its six groups moved at once.

  • CarryNZD/USD held at -4.8% at the latest reading.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +8.7% to +17.0%, 12.5 times its normal pace. Dollar-lira realized vol moved from +1.2% to +1.1%.
  • Major pairsUSD/CAD extended to +3.3% on the month (from +2.5%), 3.1 times its normal pace. EUR/USD moved from -2.4% to -3.7%.
  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.2% to +6.1%, its biggest move since September 10. Euro-dollar realized vol sits at +3.4%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.1% to +0.5%. The broad dollar index moved from +188.4% to +285.5%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Credit

Credit had a single story. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.66, 8.8 times its normal pace.

  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.66, 8.8 times its normal pace. CCC credit sits at 12%.
  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

A busy day in rates. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.66, 8.8 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -3.3% on the month (from -3.7%).

  • Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.66, 8.8 times its normal pace. ETF flows went from 1.59 to 3.34.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -3.3% on the month (from -3.7%), 3.9 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from -0.8% to -0.6%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityMOVE moved from 110 to 103. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.76 to 6.80.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +53.0% to +49.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.37% to 0.48%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +49.0% to +48.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.36% to 2.35%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Volatility

The change in volatility is in how things move together. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.35 to +0.24, 5.4 times its normal pace.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.35 to +0.24, 5.4 times its normal pace. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.76 to 6.80.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +3.6% to +7.1%. The oil vol premium moved from +6.0% to +4.3%.
  • Implied vol complexThe VIX9D/VIX ratio went from 0.87 to 0.78, its biggest move since September 23. The VIX term-structure slope went from -0.00 to -0.02.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The financial-conditions composite went from -0.61 to -0.49.

#5Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Forward EPS went from 303 to 309, its biggest move since September 23.

  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 303 to 309, its biggest move since September 23. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.90 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -8.7% to -5.4%.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor eased to +2.7% on the month (from +6.0%). Quality factor moved from +0.2% to +0.6%.
  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line eased to -31.0% on the month (from -41.0%). Sectors above 200dMA went from 0.27 to 0.36.
  • Index performanceFTSE 1-month return deepened to -3.3% on the month (from -1.7%). Nikkei 1-month return moved from -1.2% to +9.9%.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 89.48 to 83.18. VIX moved from +30.0% to +7.0%.
  • Sector rotationCyclicals vs defensives held at -0.02 at the latest reading. Sector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.18 to 0.27.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.35 to +0.38.

#6Commodities

Little happened in commodities.

  • AgricultureWheat eased to -6.1% on the month (from -10.7%). Wheat realized vol moved from +26.6% to +25.8%.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +20.1% to +16.3%. Silver moved from $60.1 to $60.0.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF eased to -6.0% on the month (from -6.8%).
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 52 to 49.
  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +3.5pt to +2.7pt. Copper futures roll drag went from flat to -0.3pt.
  • EnergyNat gas moved from $3.0 to $3.2. Natural-gas realized vol moved from +48.1% to +48.4%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +19.2% to +18.4%. The broad commodity ETF moved from $32.3 to $32.5.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Crypto

No news in crypto. The nearest mover was bitcoin-ETF realized vol, from +42.8% to +37.4%.

  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +42.8% to +37.4%. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +45.7% to +43.6%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.35. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.35 to -0.29.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading. Stablecoin supply went from 311 to 313.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $2,684 to $2,570. Bitcoin moved from +7.9% to +6.2%.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner revenue went from 40,876,415 to 52,925,920.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

A calm day in macro. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was the dollar, from +0.1% to +0.5%.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.1% to +0.5%. Adjusted financial conditions went from -0.52 to -0.50.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

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