MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 6 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.69× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +8.6% to +17.8%, the biggest such move in at least four years. NZD/USD deepened to -4.4% on the month (from -4.3%). USD/CAD extended to +2.7% on the month (from +2.0%). Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.2% to +8.2%. Three of its six groups moved at once.

  • Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +8.6% to +17.8%, the biggest such move in at least four years. Dollar-lira realized vol moved from +1.2% to +1.1%.
  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -4.4% on the month (from -4.3%), 2.6 times its normal pace.
  • Major pairsUSD/CAD extended to +2.7% on the month (from +2.0%), 2.6 times its normal pace. EUR/USD moved from -1.9% to -3.0%.
  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.2% to +8.2%, 4.0 times its normal pace. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.0% to +6.2%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.3%. The broad dollar index moved from +188.4% to +285.5%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Credit

Credit had a single story. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.72, 8.9 times its normal pace.

  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.72, 8.9 times its normal pace. CCC credit moved from 11% to 12%.
  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Crypto

A busy day in crypto. The Ethereum ETF extended to +228.8% on the month (from +10.4%), the biggest such move in at least a year. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +45.8% to +6.7%.

  • PerformanceThe Ethereum ETF extended to +228.8% on the month (from +10.4%), the biggest such move in at least a year. Bitcoin moved from +6.5% to +8.2%.
  • Crypto volatilityThe Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +45.8% to +6.7%, its biggest move since September 2025. Bitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +43.1% to +36.8%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.36 to -0.29, its biggest move since September 22. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.40 to +0.36.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply growth extended to +1.3% on the month (from +0.8%), its biggest move since September 9. Stablecoin supply went from 311 to 313.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active addresses went from 416,118 to 496,955.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Rates

Rates moved on several fronts. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.72, 8.9 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.72, 8.9 times its normal pace. ETF flows went from 1.59 to 3.37.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -3.4% on the month (from -3.7%), 4.0 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from -0.9% to -0.7%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.65 to 7.01. MOVE moved from 107 to 105.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from +72.0% to +50.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.32% to 0.47%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +56.0% to +53.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.35% to 2.36%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Volatility

The change in volatility is in how things move together. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.25, 5.6 times its normal pace.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.25, 5.6 times its normal pace. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.65 to 7.01.
  • Implied vol complexThe VIX9D/VIX ratio went from 0.89 to 0.80. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 16.68 to 17.34.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +4.2% to +6.8%. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.29 to 1.41.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index went from -2.63 to -2.09.

#6Commodities

Commodities was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range. The nearest mover was copper futures roll drag, from +0.9pt to -0.7pt.

  • Roll yield & carryCopper futures roll drag went from +0.9pt to -0.7pt, 2.9 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +3.4pt to +4.0pt.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF moved from $32.0 to $32.7, its biggest move since September 22. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +20.2% to +16.2%. Silver moved from $60.7 to $61.7.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 54 to 49.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF eased to -6.0% on the month (from -6.4%). Crude (USO) moved from +10.5% to +2.1%.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $692.8 to $704.5. Wheat realized vol moved from +25.9% to +25.6%.
  • EnergyNat gas moved from $3.0 to $3.1. Natural-gas realized vol moved from +48.3% to +48.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Equities

A calm day in equities. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was forward EPS, from 304 to 310.

  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 304 to 310. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.67 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.03.
  • Factor returnsValue factor deepened to -7.0% on the month (from -2.9%), its biggest move since September 22. Quality factor moved from +0.2% to +0.3%.
  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line eased to -22.0% on the month (from -35.0%). Sectors above 200dMA sits at 0.36.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 89.71 to 82.59, its biggest move since September 22. VIX moved from -3.0% to -51.0%.
  • Index performanceFTSE 1-month return deepened to -2.6% on the month (from -1.7%). S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.02 to 0.00.
  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.27 to 0.18. Sector leadership persistence went from 0.35 to 0.36.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.34 to +0.37.

#8Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.3%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

Descriptive research, not investment advice · the live lens · all days