MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 5 October 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.62× the norm

#1FX

Most of the day's movement came from FX. NZD/USD eased to -5.0% on the month (from -5.1%), 3.0 times its normal pace. Dollar-real realized vol moved from +8.5% to +18.6%. USD/CAD extended to +3.3% on the month (from +2.2%). Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.4% to +6.1%. Four of its six groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • CarryNZD/USD eased to -5.0% on the month (from -5.1%), 3.0 times its normal pace.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-real realized vol moved from +8.5% to +18.6%, the biggest such move in at least four years. Dollar-peso realized vol moved from +7.7% to +9.9%.
  • Major pairsUSD/CAD extended to +3.3% on the month (from +2.2%), its biggest move since June 25. EUR/USD moved from -2.4% to -3.7%.
  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +11.4% to +6.1%, its biggest move since September 10. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.1% to +5.7%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.3% to +0.5%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Credit

Only one thing moved in credit. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.80, 9.1 times its normal pace.

  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.80, 9.1 times its normal pace. CCC credit moved from 11% to 12%.
  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

A busy day in rates. HYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.80, 9.1 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -3.5% on the month (from -4.0%).

  • Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from 1.30 to 4.80, 9.1 times its normal pace. ETF flows went from 1.59 to 3.40.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF eased to -3.5% on the month (from -4.0%), 4.1 times its normal pace. The 1-3y Treasury ETF moved from -1.1% to -0.7%.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.34 to 7.15. MOVE moved from 102 to 114.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year Treasury yield moved from 5.47% to 5.61%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.36% to 0.45%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from 2.85% to 2.88%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.34% to 2.35%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Volatility

A relationship is shifting in volatility. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.37 to +0.25, its biggest move since February 2026.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.37 to +0.25, its biggest move since February 2026. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 6.34 to 7.15.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +3.1% to +8.3%, its biggest move since September 2. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.36 to 1.32.
  • Implied vol complexMOVE moved from 102 to 114. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 15.61 to 17.00.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.25 to -0.14.

#5Crypto

A relationship is shifting in crypto. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.35 to -0.26, 3.0 times its normal pace.

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.35 to -0.26, 3.0 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.41 to +0.35.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +44.6% to +36.4%, its biggest move since August 26. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +47.0% to +40.3%.
  • PerformanceBitcoin extended to +10.2% on the month (from +7.3%), its biggest move since September 21. The Bitcoin ETF moved from +4.2% to +10.3%.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading. Stablecoin supply went from 311 to 312.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner revenue went from 40,311,937 to 40,812,052.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Equities

Equities had a single story. The advance-decline line deepened to -45.0% on the month (from -39.0%).

  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line deepened to -45.0% on the month (from -39.0%). Sectors above 200dMA went from 0.36 to 0.27.
  • Factor returnsQuality factor swung from -0.3% to +0.9% on the month, 2.7 times its normal pace. Momentum factor moved from +4.2% to +3.2%.
  • Index performanceNikkei 1-month return extended to +8.9% on the month (from +0.0%), its biggest move since July 30. FTSE 1-month return moved from -1.0% to -3.2%.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.38 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.03.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 305 to 307. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +10.6% to +9.5%. The VIX/VIX3M term ratio went from 0.88 to 0.87.
  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.27 to 0.18. Sector rotation velocity went from 3.23 to 3.85.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.40 to +0.33.

#7Commodities

A calm day in commodities. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was wheat realized vol, from +28.6% to +24.0%.

  • AgricultureWheat realized vol moved from +28.6% to +24.0%. Wheat moved from -7.3% to -4.7%.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +21.7% to +15.7%, its biggest move since June 18. Silver moved from $61.2 to $61.5.
  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +4.5pt to +2.7pt, 2.5 times its normal pace. Copper futures roll drag went from -0.4pt to -0.2pt.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 56 to 51.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF eased to -5.2% on the month (from -10.6%). Crude (USO) moved from +15.4% to -1.0%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +18.8% to +18.0%. The broad commodity ETF moved from +5.3% to +0.2%.
  • EnergyCrude moved from $92.6 to $89.6. Natural-gas realized vol moved from +48.4% to +47.4%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

Little happened in macro. The nearest mover was the dollar, from +0.3% to +0.5%.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.3% to +0.5%. Net liquidity moved from $5.77tn to $5.78tn.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.41tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 159.0m at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.

Descriptive research, not investment advice · the live lens · all days