MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 24 September 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.61× the norm

#1Crypto

The change in crypto is in how things move together. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.21 to +0.36, its biggest move since July 2025. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +59.5% to +47.0%. Bitcoin moved from $76,404 to $84,119.

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.21 to +0.36, its biggest move since July 2025. Bitcoin beta to the S&P went from +0.82 to +1.28.
  • Crypto volatilityThe Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +59.5% to +47.0%, 3.1 times its normal pace. Ethereum realized vol moved from +44.2% to +45.0%.
  • PerformanceBitcoin moved from $76,404 to $84,119, 3.1 times its normal pace. Ethereum moved from $2,447 to $2,666.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 310 to 311.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active-address growth moved from +17.0% to +20.8%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Commodities

A busy day in commodities. Oil futures roll drag went from -1.1pt to +5.4pt, its biggest move since May 18. The broad commodity ETF moved hard.

  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from -1.1pt to +5.4pt, its biggest move since May 18. Natgas futures roll drag went from -2.2pt to -7.9pt.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF held at +8.4% at the latest reading.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) extended to +19.8% on the month (from +18.9%), 3.5 times its normal pace. The gold ETF moved from -0.0% to -8.7%.
  • EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +26.6% to +32.3%, its biggest move since June 2. Crude moved from $101.9 to $94.2.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $727.0 to $701.2, its biggest move since September 9. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 25 to 23. Oil vol moved from 52 to 53.
  • MetalsGold realized vol moved from +23.0% to +18.8%. Copper moved from $6.6 to $6.8.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3FX

FX moved on several fronts. NZD/USD deepened to -5.1% on the month (from -2.6%), its biggest move since June 30. GBP/USD deepened to -3.1% on the month (from -1.1%).

  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -5.1% on the month (from -2.6%), its biggest move since June 30.
  • Major pairsGBP/USD deepened to -3.1% on the month (from -1.1%), its biggest move since November 2025. USD/CHF moved from +1.0% to +2.3%.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/INR extended to +2.6% on the month (from +0.3%), its biggest move since July 24. Dollar-rupee realized vol moved from +11.8% to +8.7%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.14 to -0.09. The broad dollar index went from 118 to 120.
  • FX volatilityEuro-dollar realized vol moved from +4.7% to +4.0%. Dollar-franc realized vol moved from +7.8% to +5.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. The 1-3y Treasury ETF deepened to -1.1% on the month (from -0.8%), the biggest such move in at least four years.

  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF deepened to -1.1% on the month (from -0.8%), the biggest such move in at least four years. The 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +5.4% to +5.7%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from -0.75 to 0.84.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from +50.0% to +47.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from -26.0% to -20.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from +30.0% to +42.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 5y inflation forwards moved from 2.31% to 2.36%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.56 to 6.29.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 93.57 to 94.51.

#5Equities

Only one thing moved in equities. Momentum factor swung from -1.2% to +4.2% on the month, 3.9 times its normal pace.

  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from -1.2% to +4.2% on the month, 3.9 times its normal pace. Low-vol factor moved from -1.0% to -2.8%.
  • Market breadthThe advance-decline line deepened to -45.0% on the month (from -27.0%). RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.03 to -0.04.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 2.37 to 3.80. Leading-sector count sits at 2.00.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.28 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from -24.9% to +36.7%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.03 to 0.04. Forward EPS went from 303 to 304.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak held at -0.02 at the latest reading. S&P daily return moved from +1.1% to -0.4%.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +9.4% to +10.5%. The VIX/VIX3M term ratio went from 0.83 to 0.86.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.45 to +0.40.

#6Credit

Credit was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to 0.40. Single-B credit moved from 2.85% to 2.71%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

Macro stayed in range all session.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.2%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading. Initial claims moved from -10.0% to -12.8%.

#8Volatility

Little happened in volatility. The nearest mover was the GVZ/VIX ratio, from 1.62 to 1.45.

  • Stress concentrationThe GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.62 to 1.45. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.56 to 6.29.
  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 55.46 to 64.07. MOVE moved from 81 to 95.
  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +9.4% to +10.5%. The oil vol premium moved from +11.2% to +8.7%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.10 to -0.61.

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