MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 23 September 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.76× the norm

#1Crypto

Most of the day's movement came from crypto. Ethereum realized vol moved from +72.7% to +45.8%, 5.0 times its normal pace. Bitcoin moved from $76,150 to $84,351. A second straight session at the top.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +72.7% to +45.8%, 5.0 times its normal pace. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +59.6% to +46.9%.
  • PerformanceBitcoin moved from $76,150 to $84,351, 3.3 times its normal pace. Ethereum moved from $2,416 to $2,673.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.24 to +0.32, 3.4 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.45 to -0.36.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 310 to 312, its biggest move since August 27.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin active addresses went from 410,158 to 528,313.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Momentum factor swung from -3.2% to +3.3% on the month, its biggest move since August 24. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.02 to -0.04.

  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from -3.2% to +3.3% on the month, its biggest move since August 24. Low-vol factor moved from +0.5% to -3.1%.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.02 to -0.04, 3.2 times its normal pace. Sectors above 200dMA went from 0.45 to 0.36.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 2.10 to 4.58, its biggest move since August 5. Leading-sector count went from 2.00 to 1.00.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 301 to 306. Forward EPS revisions went from 0.00 to 0.05.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +8.7% to +10.5%, its biggest move since September 3. VIX moved from +10.0% to +31.0%.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.59 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +3.5% to +73.9%.
  • Index performanceS&P daily return moved from -0.4% to -0.8%. S&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.03 to -0.01.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.45 to +0.42.

#3FX

A busy day in FX. NZD/USD deepened to -4.9% on the month (from -2.6%), its biggest move since June 30. Dollar-franc realized vol moved from +7.8% to +5.3%.

  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -4.9% on the month (from -2.6%), its biggest move since June 30.
  • FX volatilityDollar-franc realized vol moved from +7.8% to +5.3%, 4.2 times its normal pace. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +3.7% to +4.8%.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-peso realized vol moved from +5.1% to +7.6%, its biggest move since February 2026. The EM dollar index went from 126 to 128.
  • Major pairsGBP/USD deepened to -2.9% on the month (from -0.6%), its biggest move since December 2025. USD/CHF moved from +1.0% to +2.9%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.6%. The broad dollar index went from 118 to 120.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Commodities

Commodities moved on several fronts. Oil futures roll drag went from -1.4pt to +3.3pt, 6.7 times its normal pace.

  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from -1.4pt to +3.3pt, 6.7 times its normal pace. Wheat futures roll drag went from -2.6pt to -2.7pt.
  • EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +28.5% to +36.8%, its biggest move since March 10. Crude moved from +21.2% to +9.2%.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 27 to 23, its biggest move since August 25. Oil vol moved from 62 to 53.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF eased to +5.2% on the month (from +12.3%). The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +17.6% to +18.9%.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +12.6% on the month (from +19.9%). The gold ETF moved from -3.4% to -7.9%.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $730.8 to $707.2, its biggest move since September 9. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • MetalsCopper moved from $6.4 to $6.8. Gold realized vol moved from +23.3% to +18.8%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Rates

Rates had a single story. The 1-3y Treasury ETF deepened to -1.1% on the month (from -0.8%), the biggest such move in at least four years.

  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF deepened to -1.1% on the month (from -0.8%), the biggest such move in at least four years. The 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +4.9% to +6.3%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Rates volatilityThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.87 to 5.18, its biggest move since September 2. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.31 to 1.17.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from -0.75 to 0.84.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from +50.0% to +47.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from -18.0% to -25.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from +30.0% to +42.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from 2.38% to 2.33%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 93.57 to 94.51.

#6Credit

Little happened in credit.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to 0.40. Single-B credit moved from 2.85% to 2.71%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

Macro was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range. The nearest mover was the dollar, from +0.2% to +0.6%.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.6%.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.3m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.11 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

#8Volatility

A calm day in volatility. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was the MOVE/VIX ratio, from 4.87 to 5.18.

  • Stress concentrationThe MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.87 to 5.18, its biggest move since September 2. Vol complex co-movement went from +0.34 to +0.38.
  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +8.7% to +10.5%, its biggest move since September 3. The oil vol premium moved from +23.6% to +8.5%.
  • Implied vol complexGold vol moved from 27 to 23, its biggest move since August 25. VIX moved from +10.0% to +31.0%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index (vol leg) went from -0.08 to -0.57.

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