MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 10 September 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.51× the norm

#1Commodities

Commodities moved more than anything else. Wheat eased to +15.6% on the month (from +18.2%), 3.7 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF eased to +10.5% on the month (from +12.8%). Copper realized vol moved from +15.4% to +20.2%. Crude (USO) eased to +20.4% on the month (from +21.9%). Three of its eight groups moved at once.

  • AgricultureWheat eased to +15.6% on the month (from +18.2%), 3.7 times its normal pace.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF eased to +10.5% on the month (from +12.8%), 3.7 times its normal pace.
  • MetalsCopper realized vol moved from +15.4% to +20.2%, its biggest move since December 2025. Copper moved from $6.5 to $6.6.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +20.4% on the month (from +21.9%), 3.7 times its normal pace.
  • EnergyCrude eased to +19.4% on the month (from +20.1%), 3.5 times its normal pace.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from -1.4pt to -4.8pt, 3.4 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +1.8pt to +1.0pt.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 48 to 53, its biggest move since August 5. Gold vol moved from 26 to 28.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Sector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.64 to 0.36, its biggest move since August 5. Forward EPS went from 304 to 301.

  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.64 to 0.36, its biggest move since August 5. Sector rotation velocity went from 4.47 to 3.13.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 304 to 301, its biggest move since August 7. Forward EPS revisions went from 0.01 to 0.04.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from -4.4% to +0.5% on the month, 3.2 times its normal pace. Value factor sits at +3.8%.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 86.25 to 98.19, its biggest move since July 17. VIX moved from 14 to 18.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.02 to -0.03, its biggest move since July 29. The Stoxx moved from -1.5% to -3.8%.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.00 to -0.02. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.29 to 0.28.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 40.98 at the latest reading.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.34 to +0.28.

#3Volatility

Volatility had a single story. The vol complex gauge went from 51.88 to 80.34, its biggest move since October 2025.

  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 51.88 to 80.34, its biggest move since October 2025. VVIX went from 86.25 to 98.19.
  • Stress concentrationThe GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.72 to 1.59, its biggest move since August 5. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.77 to 4.66.
  • Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from +14.0% to +21.1%. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.06 to 1.24.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The financial-conditions composite went from -0.66 to -0.79.

#4Crypto

The change in crypto is in how things move together. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.29 to +0.21, its biggest move since August 21.

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.29 to +0.21, its biggest move since August 21. Bitcoin-gold co-movement went from +0.59 to +0.65.
  • PerformanceBitcoin eased to +21.7% on the month (from +25.8%), 2.9 times its normal pace. The Bitcoin ETF moved from +20.3% to +21.5%.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +39.4% to +44.8%. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +43.5% to +44.9%.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner-revenue growth moved from +21.6% to +65.4%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#5FX

FX had a single story. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.9% to +9.9%, 10.4 times its normal pace.

  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.9% to +9.9%, 10.4 times its normal pace. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +4.9% to +5.6%.
  • Major pairsUSD/JPY swung from +0.8% to -3.2% on the month. AUD/USD moved from +1.7% to +1.4%.
  • CarryNZD/USD deepened to -1.3% on the month (from -0.4%).
  • Emerging marketsDollar-peso realized vol moved from +3.4% to +4.2%, its biggest move since August 24. Dollar-lira realized vol sits at +2.3%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.04 to -0.06, its biggest move since August 26. The broad dollar index went from 119 to 118.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexJNK ETF flows went from -1.04 to -0.75. Credit curve slope moved from 8.97% to 9.01%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

Macro stayed in range all session.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.2%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

#8Rates

Little happened in rates.

  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF deepened to -0.5% on the month (from -0.3%), its biggest move since June 1. The 7-10y Treasury ETF moved from -1.1% to -1.7%.
  • Flows & positioningTLT ETF flows went from -0.94 to -1.25.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from +6.0% to +20.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +4.0% to +0.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 1.06 to 1.24.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 89.51 to 92.49.

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