MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 9 September 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.59× the norm

#1Commodities

Commodities moved more than anything else. Wheat eased to +16.5% on the month (from +18.2%), 3.9 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF eased to +9.1% on the month (from +12.8%). Wheat futures roll drag went from -1.4pt to -5.2pt. Crude (USO) eased to +16.4% on the month (from +21.9%). Two of its eight groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • AgricultureWheat eased to +16.5% on the month (from +18.2%), 3.9 times its normal pace.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF eased to +9.1% on the month (from +12.8%), 3.2 times its normal pace. The broad commodity ETF realized vol moved from +18.2% to +15.3%.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from -1.4pt to -5.2pt, its biggest move since December 2024. Copper futures roll drag went from +0.3pt to -1.6pt.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +16.4% on the month (from +21.9%), 3.0 times its normal pace. The gold ETF moved from +7.6% to +0.9%.
  • EnergyCrude eased to +15.1% on the month (from +20.1%), 2.7 times its normal pace. Oil realized vol moved from +33.8% to +30.4%.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 26 to 28.
  • MetalsCopper moved from $6.5 to $6.8, its biggest move since August 5. Copper realized vol moved from +15.4% to +16.3%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Crypto

A relationship is shifting in crypto. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.29 to +0.20, 3.9 times its normal pace. Bitcoin extended to +24.6% on the month (from +20.7%).

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.29 to +0.20, 3.9 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-gold co-movement went from +0.59 to +0.65.
  • PerformanceBitcoin extended to +24.6% on the month (from +20.7%), 3.3 times its normal pace. The Bitcoin ETF moved from +20.3% to +24.7%.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +39.4% to +43.9%. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +41.1% to +44.1%.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply went from 309 to 310.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner-revenue growth moved from +38.3% to +10.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3FX

FX moved on several fronts. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.1% to +9.8%, 14.0 times its normal pace. USD/JPY swung from +1.7% to -3.7% on the month.

  • FX volatilityDollar-yen realized vol moved from +5.1% to +9.8%, 14.0 times its normal pace. Aussie-dollar realized vol moved from +5.4% to +4.8%.
  • Major pairsUSD/JPY swung from +1.7% to -3.7% on the month, its biggest move since March 19. AUD/USD moved from +2.1% to +2.5%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.04 to -0.09, its biggest move since August 7. The dollar moved from -0.1% to -0.2%.
  • CarryNZD/USD swung from +0.5% to -0.5% on the month.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-rand realized vol moved from +8.3% to +7.1%. Dollar-lira realized vol sits at +2.3%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Equities

A busy day in equities. Momentum factor swung from -4.4% to +1.5% on the month, 4.4 times its normal pace.

  • Factor returnsMomentum factor swung from -4.4% to +1.5% on the month, 4.4 times its normal pace. Value factor moved from +3.8% to +4.0%.
  • Sector rotationSector breadth (50dMA) went from 0.64 to 0.36, its biggest move since August 7. Cyclicals vs defensives sits at -0.01.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.01 to 0.05. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.00 to -0.02. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.29 to 0.28.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak held at -0.02 at the latest reading. S&P daily return moved from +0.5% to -0.3%.
  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.18 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.02.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 86.25 to 92.71, its biggest move since August 5. S&P realized vol moved from +7.2% to +8.1%.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Rate realized vol moved from +74.9% to +63.0%.

#5Credit

No news in credit.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexJNK ETF flows went from -1.02 to -0.75. Credit curve slope moved from 8.9% to 9%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Macro

Little happened in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to -0.2%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

#7Rates

Rates was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningTLT ETF flows went from -0.95 to -1.25. ETF flows went from -0.92 to 0.44.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +5.0% to +4.6%. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.7% to +1.6%.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from 4.34% to 4.37%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve sits at 0.41%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.18% to 2.17%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +0.0% to +2.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 0.95 to 1.16.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 86.38 to 91.40.

#8Volatility

Volatility stayed in range all session. The nearest mover was the vol complex gauge, from 56.48 to 71.96.

  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 56.48 to 71.96, its biggest move since May 25. Gold vol moved from 26 to 28.
  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.35 to +0.32, its biggest move since August 11. The GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.72 to 1.73.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +192.7% to +4.9%. S&P realized vol moved from +7.2% to +8.1%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. Euro-area systemic stress went from 0.02 to 0.03.

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