MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 4 September 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.48× the norm

#1Commodities

Most of the day's movement came from commodities. Wheat extended to +18.5% on the month (from +15.6%), its biggest move since July 23. The broad commodity ETF extended to +9.4% on the month (from +5.0%). Crude (USO) extended to +16.7% on the month (from +1.7%). Wheat futures roll drag went from -1.9pt to -4.7pt. Two of its eight groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • AgricultureWheat extended to +18.5% on the month (from +15.6%), its biggest move since July 23.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF extended to +9.4% on the month (from +5.0%), 3.3 times its normal pace.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) extended to +16.7% on the month (from +1.7%), 3.1 times its normal pace. The gold ETF moved from +8.4% to +3.9%.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from -1.9pt to -4.7pt, 3.3 times its normal pace. Oil futures roll drag went from +2.0pt to +1.6pt.
  • EnergyCrude swung from -0.2% to +15.1% on the month, 2.7 times its normal pace.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 25 to 27.
  • MetalsGold eased to +5.5% on the month (from +9.2%).
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Crypto

A relationship is shifting in crypto. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.28, its biggest move since July 2. Bitcoin extended to +23.6% on the month (from +20.2%).

  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.28, its biggest move since July 2. Bitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.32.
  • PerformanceBitcoin extended to +23.6% on the month (from +20.2%), 3.2 times its normal pace. The Bitcoin ETF moved from +19.6% to +23.3%.
  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +40.1% to +44.6%.
  • Market structureStablecoin supply growth extended to +1.3% on the month (from +1.0%), its biggest move since July 14.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner-revenue growth moved from +50.3% to +43.3%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. TLT ETF flows went from -0.95 to -1.47, its biggest move since July 30.

  • Flows & positioningTLT ETF flows went from -0.95 to -1.47, its biggest move since July 30. ETF flows went from -0.93 to -0.23.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Term premium & durationThe 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.6% to +1.7%. Long-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +10.5% to +10.2%.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from 4.19% to 4.39%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from 0.47% to 0.43%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.06% to 2.19%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens sits at +1.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 0.93 to 1.22.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 62.33 to 88.95.

#4Equities

A busy day in equities. Shiller CAPE moved hard.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 42.38 at the latest reading. The Fed-model spread sits at -0.02.
  • Factor returnsValue factor swung from -0.9% to +4.2% on the month, its biggest move since August 14. Momentum factor moved from -3.3% to -1.8%.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from -0.00 to -0.01. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.29 to 0.28.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.02 to 0.05, its biggest move since August 11. The forward equity risk premium sits at -0.01.
  • Equity volatilityS&P realized vol moved from +10.3% to +8.1%. Implied minus realized vol went from 4.15 to 6.06.
  • Sector rotationCyclicals vs defensives went from 0.02 to -0.01. Sector rotation velocity went from 2.42 to 3.41.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak held at -0.01 at the latest reading. S&P daily return moved from -0.2% to -0.1%.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Rate realized vol moved from +74.9% to +65.2%.

#5Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.58% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.60 to -0.63, its biggest move since August 20. Credit curve slope moved from 8.75% to 9%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#6FX

FX stayed in range all session. The nearest mover was Aussie-dollar realized vol, from +6.2% to +5.2%.

  • FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +6.2% to +5.2%. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +9.7% to +8.8%.
  • Major pairsAUD/USD eased to +2.0% on the month (from +3.4%). USD/CAD moved from -1.3% to -1.1%.
  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.6% to +0.2%.
  • CarryNZD/USD swung from +2.6% to -0.1% on the month.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/INR deepened to -0.6% on the month (from -0.3%). Dollar-rupee realized vol moved from +10.8% to +10.9%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.6% to +0.2%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

#8Volatility

Volatility was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range. The nearest mover was S&P realized vol, from +10.3% to +8.1%.

  • Vol risk premiumS&P realized vol moved from +10.3% to +8.1%. The MOVE-to-realized ratio went from 0.93 to 1.22.
  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 48.21 to 59.83, its biggest move since August 5. MOVE moved from 70 to 75.
  • Stress concentrationThe GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.74 to 1.87. The MOVE/VIX ratio went from 4.81 to 5.22.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. Euro-area systemic stress went from 0.01 to 0.03.

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