MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 25 August 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.67× the norm

#1FX

FX moved more than anything else. NZD/USD extended to +3.4% on the month (from +1.1%), its biggest move since August 6. Dollar-franc realized vol moved from +6.2% to +8.4%. Dollar-rand realized vol moved from +11.7% to +7.2%. Two of its six groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • CarryNZD/USD extended to +3.4% on the month (from +1.1%), its biggest move since August 6.
  • FX volatilityDollar-franc realized vol moved from +6.2% to +8.4%, 4.6 times its normal pace. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +5.0% to +4.2%.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-rand realized vol moved from +11.7% to +7.2%, its biggest move since July 30. Dollar-peso realized vol moved from +4.4% to +3.5%.
  • Major pairsEUR/USD extended to +2.7% on the month (from +1.4%), its biggest move since April 17. USD/CAD moved from -1.2% to -2.1%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.02 to -0.06. The dollar moved from +0.1% to -0.0%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2Commodities

A busy day in commodities. Gold vol moved from 24 to 28, its biggest move since August 10. The gold ETF extended to +14.6% on the month (from +8.4%).

  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 28, its biggest move since August 10. Oil vol sits at 47.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF extended to +14.6% on the month (from +8.4%), its biggest move since June 10. Crude (USO) moved from +4.1% to +6.5%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF extended to +6.9% on the month (from +4.6%), its biggest move since August 10.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $664.5 to $697.8. Wheat realized vol moved from +32.4% to +27.8%.
  • MetalsGold extended to +15.6% on the month (from +8.9%), its biggest move since March 30. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • EnergyOil realized vol moved from +58.5% to +46.2%, its biggest move since July 31. Crude moved from $84.9 to $82.2.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from +0.3pt to -1.6pt. Copper futures roll drag went from -0.9pt to +0.2pt.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Crypto

A busy day in crypto. Ethereum realized vol moved from +21.5% to +67.0%, the biggest such move in at least four years. Bitcoin moved from $64,681 to $78,587.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +21.5% to +67.0%, the biggest such move in at least four years. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +19.7% to +40.2%.
  • PerformanceBitcoin moved from $64,681 to $78,587, 6.2 times its normal pace. Ethereum moved from $1,916 to $2,460.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-S&P co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.34. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.36 to +0.32.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin miner-revenue growth moved from +27.7% to +6.8%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#4Equities

Equities had a single story. Shiller CAPE moved hard.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 41.84 at the latest reading. The earnings yield sits at +2.4%.
  • Factor returnsValue factor swung from +3.1% to -1.3% on the month. Momentum factor moved from -0.4% to +0.2%.
  • Market breadthEqual-weight vs cap-weight S&P held at 0.29 at the latest reading. RSP vs S&P, 200-day went from 0.00 to 0.01.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.01 to -0.02. S&P daily return moved from -0.7% to +0.3%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS revisions went from 0.04 to 0.02. Forward EPS sits at 302.
  • Sector rotationLeading-sector count went from 3.00 to 2.00. Sector rotation velocity went from 2.38 to 2.56.
  • Equity volatilityVVIX went from 92.87 to 87.71. SKEW went from 143 to 146.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Credit-vol co-movement went from +0.28 to +0.31.

#5Credit

Credit was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.59% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexJNK ETF flows went from -0.96 to -0.78. Credit curve slope moved from 8.55% to 8.79%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Macro

Macro stayed in range all session.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.1% to -0.0%.

#7Rates

No news in rates. The nearest mover was long-Treasury ETF realized vol, from +9.3% to +11.4%.

  • Term premium & durationLong-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +9.3% to +11.4%, 2.6 times its normal pace. The 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +4.3% to +4.6%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from -0.57 to -0.69. HYG ETF flows went from -0.87 to -0.39.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield sits at +5.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from +16.0% to +10.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +2.0% to +5.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +1.0% to -2.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 56.91 to 60.62.

#8Volatility

Little happened in volatility. The nearest mover was the oil vol premium, from -11.3% to +63.6%.

  • Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from -11.3% to +63.6%, its biggest move since August 7. The gold vol premium moved from +238.0% to +7.5%.
  • Stress concentrationThe GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.51 to 1.75, its biggest move since August 11. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 2.98 to 2.96.
  • Implied vol complexGold vol moved from 24 to 28, its biggest move since August 10. The vol complex gauge went from 54.33 to 69.22.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. Euro-area systemic stress went from 0.01 to 0.02.

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