MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 20 August 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.42× the norm

#1Crypto

Crypto moved more than anything else. Ethereum realized vol moved from +26.0% to +62.8%, the biggest such move in at least four years. Ethereum moved from $1,884 to $2,274. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.41 to -0.48. Two of its six groups moved at once. A second straight session at the top.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +26.0% to +62.8%, the biggest such move in at least four years. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +31.2% to +50.6%.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $1,884 to $2,274, its biggest move since June 5. Bitcoin moved from $63,402 to $71,611.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.41 to -0.48, 2.5 times its normal pace. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.38 to +0.33.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +11.2% to +21.0%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2FX

FX moved on several fronts. NZD/USD extended to +2.2% on the month (from +0.8%). EUR/USD extended to +2.4% on the month (from +0.9%).

  • CarryNZD/USD extended to +2.2% on the month (from +0.8%).
  • Major pairsEUR/USD extended to +2.4% on the month (from +0.9%), its biggest move since April 17. GBP/USD moved from +0.8% to +1.9%.
  • FX volatilitySterling-dollar realized vol moved from +6.4% to +5.3%. Dollar-franc realized vol moved from +6.9% to +6.2%.
  • Emerging marketsDollar-lira realized vol moved from +1.3% to +1.5%. Dollar-peso realized vol moved from +5.7% to +4.0%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.05 to -0.03. The dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.1%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. Long-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +9.0% to +11.3%, 3.1 times its normal pace.

  • Term premium & durationLong-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +9.0% to +11.3%, 3.1 times its normal pace. The long-Treasury ETF moved from -2.0% to -1.3%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. TLT ETF flows went from 0.37 to -0.96.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year Treasury yield moved from +14.0% to +17.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from +8.0% to +9.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year real yield moved from 3% to 3.03%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from -1.0% to +0.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 72.55 to 56.67.

#4Commodities

Commodities moved on several fronts. Wheat moved from $652.8 to $706.2, its biggest move since July 17.

  • AgricultureWheat moved from $652.8 to $706.2, its biggest move since July 17. Wheat realized vol moved from +30.3% to +33.0%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF moved from $29.8 to $31.0, 2.6 times its normal pace. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from +1.2pt to -1.5pt, its biggest move since July 15. Oil futures roll drag went from +0.9pt to +2.6pt.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 26. Oil vol moved from 49 to 48.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF extended to +8.5% on the month (from +7.1%).
  • EnergyCrude moved from $81.2 to $86.4. Natural-gas realized vol moved from +35.4% to +36.0%.
  • MetalsGold extended to +9.4% on the month (from +7.9%). Silver moved from +13.6% to +12.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Equities

Equities moved on several fronts. Shiller CAPE moved hard.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 42.15 at the latest reading. The earnings yield sits at +2.4%.
  • Sector rotationSector rotation velocity went from 1.44 to 3.51, its biggest move since August 6. Leading-sector count sits at 2.00.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 307 to 302.
  • Market breadthEqual-weight vs cap-weight S&P held at 0.29 at the latest reading. Sectors above 200dMA sits at 0.82.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from 0.00 to -0.01, its biggest move since July 31. The Stoxx moved from +4.5% to +1.8%.
  • Equity volatilityVIX moved from +8.0% to +63.0%. SKEW went from 137 to 143.
  • Factor returnsMomentum factor deepened to -5.2% on the month (from -4.5%). Value factor moved from +0.7% to +1.2%.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.59% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. HY OAS moved from +2.0% to +5.0%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Macro

No news in macro.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from -0.1% to +0.1%.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading. Initial claims went from 200,000 to 212,000.

#8Volatility

Volatility was quiet. Nothing moved beyond its normal range. The nearest mover was the vol complex gauge, from 48.74 to 67.46.

  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 48.74 to 67.46, its biggest move since October 2025. Gold vol moved from 24 to 26.
  • Stress concentrationThe OVX/VIX ratio went from 3.37 to 3.11. The GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.63 to 1.69.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +199.4% to +3.8%. The oil vol premium moved from -10.4% to -9.5%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group.

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