MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 19 August 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.53× the norm

#1Crypto

Crypto moved more than anything else. Ethereum realized vol moved from +26.5% to +42.6%, its biggest move since June 11. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.38 to -0.48. Ethereum moved from $1,878 to $2,126.

  • Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +26.5% to +42.6%, its biggest move since June 11. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +19.7% to +28.5%.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.38 to -0.48, its biggest move since February 6. Bitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.38 to +0.34.
  • PerformanceEthereum moved from $1,878 to $2,126, its biggest move since June 8. Bitcoin moved from $63,402 to $68,748.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio held at 0.03 at the latest reading.
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin transaction count went from 542,214 to 694,502.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#2FX

FX moved on several fronts. The dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.9%, its biggest move since July 30. USD/CAD deepened to -1.9% on the month (from -1.6%).

  • DollarThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.9%, its biggest move since July 30. Aussie-S&P co-movement went from -0.04 to -0.01.
  • Major pairsUSD/CAD deepened to -1.9% on the month (from -1.6%), its biggest move since July 7. EUR/USD moved from +1.4% to +2.3%.
  • FX volatilityDollar-franc realized vol moved from +6.9% to +8.3%, its biggest move since August 5. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +6.4% to +5.2%.
  • CarryNZD/USD eased to +1.4% on the month (from +2.0%).
  • Emerging marketsDollar-peso realized vol moved from +5.7% to +4.1%, its biggest move since June 12. Dollar-rupee realized vol moved from +4.2% to +4.0%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

Rates had a single story. Long-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +8.8% to +11.1%, its biggest move since April 27.

  • Term premium & durationLong-Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +8.8% to +11.1%, its biggest move since April 27. The long-Treasury ETF moved from -2.3% to -0.8%.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. ETF flows went from 1.75 to -0.57.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year Treasury yield moved from +14.0% to +17.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from +12.0% to +13.0%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 30-year real yield moved from 3% to 3.03%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from -2.0% to +2.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 72.55 to 56.67.

#4Commodities

Commodities had a single story. Wheat moved from $652.8 to $696.5, its biggest move since July 21.

  • AgricultureWheat moved from $652.8 to $696.5, its biggest move since July 21. Wheat realized vol moved from +39.5% to +36.3%.
  • ETF flowsThe gold ETF extended to +10.4% on the month (from +8.8%), its biggest move since June 30.
  • MetalsGold extended to +12.3% on the month (from +8.6%), its biggest move since June 30. Silver moved from +11.5% to +13.2%.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF eased to +4.0% on the month (from +5.2%).
  • Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +1.0pt to +2.3pt. Wheat futures roll drag went from -1.5pt to -2.2pt.
  • Commodity volatilityOil vol moved from 52 to 48. Gold vol moved from 26 to 27.
  • EnergyNatural-gas realized vol moved from +34.4% to +35.8%. Crude moved from $83.3 to $84.3.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#5Equities

Equities had a single story. Shiller CAPE moved hard.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 42.06 at the latest reading. The earnings yield sits at +2.4%.
  • Market breadthEqual-weight vs cap-weight S&P held at 0.29 at the latest reading. Sectors above 200dMA sits at 0.82.
  • Factor returnsValue factor extended to +3.2% on the month (from +0.2%). Momentum factor moved from -3.0% to -2.5%.
  • Equity volatilityVIX moved from -73.0% to -95.0%, its biggest move since July 31. SKEW went from 136 to 144.
  • Sector rotationSector leadership persistence went from -0.08 to 0.02. Cyclicals vs defensives went from 0.02 to -0.00.
  • Index performanceS&P drawdown from the 1-year peak went from -0.00 to -0.01. The Stoxx moved from +4.0% to +2.5%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 305 to 303.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. The financial-conditions composite went from -0.64 to -0.66.

#6Macro

Macro had a single story. The dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.9%, its biggest move since July 30.

  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to -0.9%, its biggest move since July 30.
  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

#7Credit

No news in credit.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.59% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. HY OAS moved from +2.0% to +5.0%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Volatility

Little happened in volatility. The nearest mover was vol complex co-movement, from +0.42 to +0.39.

  • Stress concentrationVol complex co-movement went from +0.42 to +0.39, its biggest move since July 30. The OVX/VIX ratio went from 3.60 to 3.20.
  • Vol risk premiumThe gold vol premium moved from +4.1% to +87.1%, its biggest move since August 5. The oil vol premium moved from -6.7% to -10.5%.
  • Implied vol complexThe vol complex gauge went from 63.98 to 53.70. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 12.37 to 11.83.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The financial-conditions composite went from -0.64 to -0.66.

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