Cross-asset conditions, 18 August 2026
The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.
cross-asset activity 0.29× the norm
Most of the day's movement came from commodities. Wheat moved from $630.2 to $687.8, its biggest move since July 16. Oil futures roll drag went from +0.8pt to +4.8pt. The broad commodity ETF eased to +5.6% on the month (from +8.8%). The gold ETF extended to +9.4% on the month (from +6.8%). Wheat still sits near multi-year highs.
- AgricultureWheat moved from $630.2 to $687.8, its biggest move since July 16. Wheat realized vol moved from +37.7% to +32.7%.
- Roll yield & carryOil futures roll drag went from +0.8pt to +4.8pt, its biggest move since July 17. Wheat futures roll drag went from -0.1pt to -2.9pt.
- Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF eased to +5.6% on the month (from +8.8%).
- ETF flowsThe gold ETF extended to +9.4% on the month (from +6.8%).
- MetalsGold extended to +11.0% on the month (from +9.7%), its biggest move since June 30. Silver moved from +12.4% to +14.5%.
- Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 28 to 25. Oil vol moved from 56 to 52.
- EnergyNat gas deepened to -4.7% on the month (from -4.5%). Crude moved from $83.2 to $84.2.
- Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.
Only one thing moved in rates. Net interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading.
- Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Term premium & durationThe long-Treasury ETF deepened to -3.7% on the month (from -2.9%), its biggest move since August 3.
- Flows & positioningHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. ETF flows went from 1.76 to -0.57.
- Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 2-year Treasury yield moved from 4.19% to 4.17%.
- Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-2s curve moved from +12.0% to +16.0%.
- Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 5-year real yield moved from 2.13% to 2.12%.
- Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +4.0% to +1.0%.
- Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group.
- Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 69.66 to 56.91.
Equities moved on several fronts. Shiller CAPE moved hard. Sectors above 200dMA went from 0.82 to 0.73.
- ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 42.35 at the latest reading. The earnings yield sits at +2.4%.
- Market breadthSectors above 200dMA went from 0.82 to 0.73, its biggest move since June 16.
- Index performanceS&P daily return moved from -0.1% to -1.0%, its biggest move since August 4. The Stoxx moved from +4.2% to +4.3%.
- Sector rotationCyclicals vs defensives went from 0.03 to 0.01. Sector rotation velocity went from 2.29 to 1.92.
- Equity volatilityVIX moved from +56.0% to +145.0%, its biggest move since July 30. SKEW went from 133 to 138.
- Forward earningsForward EPS went from 305 to 303.
- Factor returnsLow-vol factor extended to +1.1% on the month (from +0.7%). Momentum factor moved from -6.4% to +1.0%.
- Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
- Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group.
Crypto had a single story. Ethereum realized vol moved from +34.5% to +21.7%, its biggest move since June 11.
- Crypto volatilityEthereum realized vol moved from +34.5% to +21.7%, its biggest move since June 11. Bitcoin realized vol moved from +24.8% to +19.8%.
- Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.40 to +0.38, its biggest move since August 3. Bitcoin-dollar co-movement went from -0.35 to -0.40.
- Market structureStablecoin supply went from 305 to 306, its biggest move since August 4.
- PerformanceBitcoin moved from $63,552 to $64,140.
- Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +11.2% to +21.0%.
- Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.
Only one thing moved in FX. Sterling-dollar realized vol moved from +6.6% to +5.1%, its biggest move since June 24.
- FX volatilitySterling-dollar realized vol moved from +6.6% to +5.1%, its biggest move since June 24. Dollar-franc realized vol moved from +7.3% to +6.1%.
- Emerging marketsDollar-rupee realized vol moved from +5.5% to +4.0%, 3.0 times its normal pace. Dollar-peso realized vol moved from +5.7% to +4.4%.
- Major pairsAUD/USD extended to +2.0% on the month (from +1.6%). USD/CAD moved from -1.6% to -1.0%.
- CarryNZD/USD eased to +0.8% on the month (from +2.2%).
- DollarThe dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.0%. Aussie-S&P co-movement sits at -0.01.
- Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.
Macro had a single story. Debt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading.
- Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
- InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
- HousingHousing starts held at 1.2m at the latest reading.
- GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
- Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.
- Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.2% to +0.0%.
Little happened in credit.
- Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.59% at the latest reading.
- Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.53 to -0.87. CCC credit sits at +0.4pt.
- Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.
A calm day in volatility. Every group stayed inside its usual pace. The nearest mover was VIX, from +56.0% to +145.0%.
- Implied vol complexVIX moved from +56.0% to +145.0%, its biggest move since July 30. Long-bond implied vol (VXTLT) went from 12.26 to 12.57.
- Stress concentrationThe OVX/VIX ratio went from 3.63 to 3.34. The GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.80 to 1.60.
- Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from -10.6% to -6.1%. The gold vol premium moved from +3.7% to +4.2%.
- Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group.