MGLens

Cross-asset conditions, 10 August 2026

The dated record: each asset class ranked by how much it mattered, with what actually moved. Written by the lens engine on the day; preserved as published.

cross-asset activity 0.46× the norm

#1Volatility

Volatility moved more than anything else. The GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.49 to 1.80, 3.0 times its normal pace. Gold vol moved from 24 to 28.

  • Stress concentrationThe GVZ/VIX ratio went from 1.49 to 1.80, 3.0 times its normal pace.
  • Implied vol complexGold vol moved from 24 to 28, its biggest move since June 11. SKEW went from 141 to 133.
  • Vol risk premiumThe oil vol premium moved from -5.9% to -10.7%. S&P realized vol moved from +12.9% to +13.7%.
  • Stress gauges & regimeNo fresh reading in this group. The OFR stress index went from -2.12 to -2.76.

#2Commodities

A busy day in commodities. Gold moved from $4,034 to $4,446, its biggest move since March 24. The broad commodity ETF extended to +8.8% on the month (from +8.7%).

  • MetalsGold moved from $4,034 to $4,446, its biggest move since March 24. Silver moved from $57.7 to $65.9.
  • Broad commoditiesThe broad commodity ETF extended to +8.8% on the month (from +8.7%), 3.2 times its normal pace.
  • Commodity volatilityGold vol moved from 24 to 28, its biggest move since June 11. Oil vol moved from 57 to 56.
  • ETF flowsCrude (USO) eased to +15.8% on the month (from +17.4%), 2.8 times its normal pace. The gold ETF moved from -1.7% to +6.8%.
  • EnergyCrude eased to +15.1% on the month (from +17.0%), 2.6 times its normal pace.
  • Roll yield & carryWheat futures roll drag went from -2.0pt to flat. Oil futures roll drag went from +0.5pt to +0.7pt.
  • AgricultureWheat moved from $651.0 to $639.5. It still sits near multi-year highs.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#3Rates

Only one thing moved in rates. ETF flows went from -0.84 to 1.77, 4.2 times its normal pace.

  • Flows & positioningETF flows went from -0.84 to 1.77, 4.2 times its normal pace.
  • Fiscal & stock-bond contextNet interest to GDP held at 3.15% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Term premium & durationThe 7-10y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +4.0% to +4.4%. The 1-3y Treasury ETF realized vol moved from +1.5% to +1.7%.
  • Yield curveNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year Treasury yield moved from +7.0% to -4.0%.
  • Curve slopeNo fresh reading in this group. The 10s-3mo curve moved from 0.92% to 0.78%.
  • Real yieldsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year real yield moved from +22.0% to +9.0%.
  • Inflation expectationsNo fresh reading in this group. 10-year breakevens moved from +1.0% to -1.0%.
  • Rates volatilityNo fresh reading in this group. Rate realized vol moved from +58.2% to +67.6%.
  • Policy pathNo fresh reading in this group. Priced odds of a hike next meeting went from 82.00 to 69.66.

#4Equities

A busy day in equities. Shiller CAPE moved hard.

  • ValuationsShiller CAPE held at 42.39 at the latest reading. Equity risk premium moved from +15.6% to -8.3%.
  • Forward earningsForward EPS went from 299 to 305. Forward EPS revisions sits at 0.05.
  • Factor returnsLow-vol factor swung from -1.3% to +0.7% on the month. Momentum factor moved from -6.3% to -6.7%.
  • Index performanceFTSE 1-month return extended to +3.5% on the month (from +1.7%). S&P daily return moved from +1.5% to -0.1%.
  • Sector rotationSector leadership persistence went from 0.03 to -0.09, its biggest move since June 2. Sector rotation velocity went from 2.80 to 2.29.
  • Market breadthRSP vs S&P, 200-day went from 0.00 to -0.01. Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P went from 0.29 to 0.28.
  • Equity volatilityVIX moved from -13.0% to +56.0%. S&P realized vol moved from +12.9% to +13.7%.
  • Positioning & sentimentNo fresh reading in this group.
  • Financial conditions & risk appetiteNo fresh reading in this group. Rate realized vol moved from +58.2% to +67.6%.

#5FX

Only one thing moved in FX. NZD/USD eased to +2.1% on the month (from +3.6%).

  • CarryNZD/USD eased to +2.1% on the month (from +3.6%).
  • Major pairsUSD/CAD deepened to -1.6% on the month (from -1.2%), its biggest move since July 8. USD/JPY moved from -2.4% to -1.9%.
  • FX volatilityAussie-dollar realized vol moved from +5.9% to +6.6%. Dollar-yen realized vol moved from +9.2% to +9.5%.
  • DollarAussie-S&P co-movement went from +0.04 to -0.01. The broad dollar index went from 120 to 119.
  • Emerging marketsUSD/MXN deepened to -2.3% on the month (from -1.0%), its biggest move since April 29. Dollar-lira realized vol moved from +1.2% to +1.3%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#6Credit

A calm day in credit. Every group stayed inside its usual pace.

  • Default cycle & lendingCorporate charge-off rate held at 0.59% at the latest reading.
  • Spread complexHYG ETF flows went from -0.05 to -0.53, its biggest move since July 16. AAA credit moved from 0.41% to 0.39%.
  • Total returnsNo fresh reading in this group.

#7Crypto

No news in crypto. The nearest mover was bitcoin-ETF realized vol, from +30.4% to +26.7%.

  • Crypto volatilityBitcoin-ETF realized vol moved from +30.4% to +26.7%. The Ethereum ETF realized vol moved from +42.9% to +38.5%.
  • Market structureThe ETH/BTC ratio (1-month change) extended to +4.7% on the month (from +4.3%). Stablecoin supply went from 305 to 306.
  • Cross-asset linkageBitcoin-Nasdaq co-movement went from +0.39 to +0.40. Bitcoin-gold co-movement went from +0.50 to +0.49.
  • PerformanceEthereum eased to +4.6% on the month (from +5.8%).
  • Network activityNo fresh reading in this group. Bitcoin hashrate growth moved from +10.1% to +11.2%.
  • Futures positioningNo fresh reading in this group.

#8Macro

Macro stayed in range all session.

  • Fiscal positionDebt-to-GDP held at 123% at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • InflationHeadline CPI held at 333 at the latest reading.
  • HousingHousing starts held at 1.4m at the latest reading.
  • Household credit & cash flowDebt service ratio held at 11.16 at the latest reading. That is its lowest level in about six months.
  • Liquidity & financial conditionsThe dollar moved from +0.0% to +0.2%. Net liquidity moved from $5.82tn to $5.84tn.
  • GrowthReal GDP held at $24.27tn at the latest reading. That is its highest level in about six months.
  • Labor marketPayrolls held at 158.9m at the latest reading.

Descriptive research, not investment advice · the live lens · all days