Quantifying macroeconomic expectations in stock markets using Google Trends
“I investigate whether a profitable investment strategy can be constructed by predicting the likely changes in U.S. unemployment before the official news release using Google query volumes for related search terms.”
AssetEquities
StrategyMacro signalsmarket timing
GeographyUS
FrequencyMonthly
Also stated: Profit, Macro, Text and news, Alternative data
Missing from abstract: benchmark, out-of-sample test, costs, multiple testing, universe
Institutional-grade audit of this strategy.
£5 — Request the audit- Audit of the paper claims accounting for costs, luck, crises, originality, geography, etc.
- Reproduction code integratable into Bloomberg, IBKR, etc.
- Bias-free datasets for backtesting included
- Delivered in 2 working days
The paper's neighbourhoodMacro signals and regime strategies by year
FamilyMacro signals and regime strategies49Momentum and trend following289Factor investing240Machine learning return prediction15318 more · 953
AssetEquities25
The family is counted across the whole universe. Asset, method and authors are counted inside the family.
| Similar papers | citation | same method | same asset | same authors | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded Anomalies over the Business Cycle by Jung | 2026 | ||||
| Dynamic Allocation with Macro Factor-Mimicking Portfolios by Molinaro and Chaudron | 2026 | ||||
| Dynamic Factor Allocation via Momentum-Based Regime Switching by Tai et al. | 2026 | ||||
| Effects of Monsoon on Indian Stock Market by Pandey et al. | 2026 | ||||
| Leakage-Aware Benchmarking of LLM Forecasting: Real-Time Nowcasts as the Decision-Time Input for Macro Factor Ranking by Guan and Chen | 2026 |