Maps the macro state into business-cycle phases (expansion / late-cycle / contraction / recovery) from a panel of growth, inflation and policy indicators, with a short directional read attached to the current phase.
The phase label sets the macro backdrop every other read sits inside. A 'late-cycle' label says growth is positive but decelerating with policy still tight — the regime where stretch and crowding matter most.
The ANCHOR directional read — the macro phase the whole Lens sits inside. Owns the "Which phase are we in?" cell in the Cycle chapter.
Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict PASS (62%).