Narrative lock-in

What's dominating the wires?

ExperimentalVerdict · SATISFACTORY (deferred)Recall · 100% (n=1)

Context · Story tag · anchor metric: triggered / not_triggered

What it measures

Detects whether a single narrative has locked in across the wires — a Shiller-style feedback loop where the story becomes the trade. Tracks topic share; fires when one topic crosses a dominance threshold.

\text{share}_t = \text{fraction of tracked coverage on topic } t

\text{locked if } \max_t \text{share}_t \ge 0.65 \quad\text{\# dominance threshold}

\text{state} \in \{\text{triggered, not\_triggered}\}

"AI boom leads at 28%, below the 65% lock-in threshold" means no single story owns the tape — narrative risk is diffuse. A lock-in is the regime where one story drives flows regardless of fundamentals.

Limitations

Deferred grading — SATISFACTORY on n=1; needs a full evaluation run before promotion.
Coverage-source dependence — the read is only as good as the topic feed.

In the product

The "What's dominating the wires?" cell + narrative lock-in list in the Cycle chapter; CONTEXT story-tag in the commentary.

Grading & stability

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Gate rate
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Stability / churn
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Mean confidence
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fetching /api/panel/about/narrative_lock_in/W/all …

Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict SATISFACTORY (deferred) (n=1, deferred).

Charts it reads

Contrarian sentiment

sentiment_contrarian—

Narrative lock-in · The Lens methodology← all engines