Kindleberger 5-stage

Which bubble stage owns the mix?

ProductionVerdict · WARNRecall · 0.56

Supporting · Cycle stage tag · anchor metric: displacement → revulsion

What it measures

Scores the market against Kindleberger's five manias-and-panics stages — displacement → boom → euphoria → distress → revulsion — as a soft mix rather than a single hard label, so the chapter can show which stage owns the weight.

\text{for each stage } s:\ w_s = \operatorname{match}(\text{current features}, \text{stage}_s \text{ archetype})

\text{normalize so } \textstyle\sum_s w_s = 1

\text{dominant stage} = \operatorname*{argmax}_s w_s \,;\ \text{report the full mix}

A mix weighted toward 'euphoria' says the tape carries late-bull hallmarks (valuation stretch, leverage, narrative dominance). It's a framing tag, deliberately fuzzy — manias don't announce their stage cleanly.

Limitations

56% (WARN) — soft archetype matching; the stage boundaries blur.
Framing, not timing — names the stage mix, not when it flips.

In the product

The "Which stage owns the mix?" cell in the Cycle chapter (stacked-area stage mix); SUPPORTING cycle-stage tag in the commentary.

Grading & stability

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Gate rate
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Stability / churn
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Mean confidence
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Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict WARN (56%).

Charts it reads

Equity risk premium

equity_risk_premium—

Liquidity

liquidity—

M2 growth

m2_growth—

Kindleberger 5-stage · The Lens methodology← all engines