Yield-curve regime

What regime are rates in?

ProductionVerdict · WARNRecall · 0.64

Supporting · Rates tag · anchor metric: bull/bear × steep/flat

What it measures

Classifies the rates regime into one of four quadrants by the joint sign of the level move and the 2s10s slope move: bull/bear (yields down/up) crossed with steepener/flattener. Each quadrant has a distinct cyclical meaning.

\Delta\text{level} = \text{change in 10y yield}

\Delta\text{slope} = \text{change in 2s10s spread}

\text{bull} = \Delta\text{level} < 0 \,;\ \text{steepener} = \Delta\text{slope} > 0

A bull steepener (yields falling, curve steepening off inversion) is the classic late-cycle pivot — the market pricing cuts ahead. The quadrant names the regime; it doesn't time the next leg.

Limitations

64% (WARN) — the quadrant boundaries are noisy near zero-slope.
Re-steepening ambiguity — a move off deep inversion can read bull-steepener while still being restrictive.

In the product

The "What regime are rates in?" cell + regime quadrant in the Cycle chapter; SUPPORTING rates-tag in the commentary.

Grading & stability

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Gate rate
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Stability / churn
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Mean confidence
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Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict WARN (64%).

Charts it reads

2s10s spread

spread_2s10s—

3m10y spread

spread_3m10y—

Yield curve

yield_curve—

Yield-curve regime · The Lens methodology← all engines