CFNAI activity

Is growth slowing?

ProductionVerdict · WARNRecall · 0.67

Supporting · Coincident activity · anchor metric: scalar, z-units

What it measures

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index — a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators collapsed to a single z-unit reading of whether the economy is running above or below trend. A coincident thermometer, not a leading one.

\text{CFNAI} = \text{standardized weighted avg of 85 indicators}

\text{above-trend} \quad \text{if CFNAI} > 0

\text{slowdown line at } -0.70 \quad\text{\# 3m-MA crossing} \rightarrow \text{recession signal}

A reading of +0.12z is modestly above trend — far from the −0.70 slowdown line. The closer to (and below) −0.70 the 3-month average runs, the stronger the recession signal.

Limitations

Coincident, not leading — confirms the current state; doesn't front-run it.
Monthly cadence — forward-filled to the panel, so it steps rather than glides.

In the product

The "Is growth slowing?" cell in the Stress chapter; SUPPORTING coincident-activity voice in the commentary.

Grading & stability

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Gate rate
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Stability / churn
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Mean confidence
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Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict WARN (67%).

Charts it reads

Growth indicators

growth—

Leading index

leading_index—

CFNAI activity · The Lens methodology← all engines