B06 analogue matcher

When did the tape last rhyme with today?

ExperimentalVerdict · ENRICHMENT (FAIL 39%)Recall · 0.39

Enrichment / Alternative view · Historical analogue · anchor metric: similarity to past regimes

What it measures

Matches today's cross-asset state against a library of past regimes and returns the closest historical analogues with a similarity score — "this resembles late-2018 in three ways." The single biggest storytelling lift: it converts numbers into narrative gravity.

v_t = \text{feature vector of current regime}

\operatorname{sim}(t,h) = 1 - \operatorname{normalized\_distance}(v_t, v_h) \quad\text{\# over library } h

\text{rhyme\_peaks} = \text{top-}k\ h \text{ by sim}

A peak at "November 2024, 0.71 similarity" means today's configuration most closely echoes that month. It's an analogy, not a forecast — the rhyme is in the setup, not a promise the outcome repeats.

Limitations

FAIL 39% — kept ENRICHMENT-ONLY because the historical-analogue slot has no other supplier; intentionally below the 70% production bar.
Library coverage — analogues are limited to the regimes in the matched library.

In the product

Powers the glance rhyme-map ("When did the tape last rhyme with today?") and the closest-analogue callout in the Cycle chapter. ENRICHMENT-ONLY: called on-demand for the historical-analogue commentary slot, never the headline.

Grading & stability

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Gate rate
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Stability / churn
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Mean confidence
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Graded on the Tier-1 regime-test harness — curated macro events × 18-yr backfill × recall@K. Verdict ENRICHMENT (FAIL 39%) (enrichment-only).

Charts it reads

Major assets

major_assets—

Equity risk premium

equity_risk_premium—

B06 analogue matcher · The Lens methodology← all engines