Labor

Is the labor market tightening or loosening?

Unemployment & Claims

The unemployment rate vs initial jobless claims — the stock and the high-frequency flow of labor stress.

How UNRATE (left) and ICSA (right, dual-axis).Source FRED (BLS, DoL)

macro_labor—

How to read Rising unemployment + rising claims = a loosening / deteriorating labor market.

Sahm Recession Gauge

How far the 3-month-average unemployment rate has risen above its trailing-12-month low.

How Sahm rule, real-time (SAHMREALTIME), in percentage points.Formula 3m-avg UNRATE − trailing-12m minimumSource FRED (Sahm)

macro_sahm—

How to read ≥0.50 = the gauge has currently triggered — a description of where unemployment is now.

A REALIZED-DATA threshold crossing, NOT a forecast — 'the Sahm gauge has currently triggered', never 'a recession is coming'.

Quits Rate

The share of employed workers voluntarily quitting each month — labor churn and worker confidence.

How JOLTS quits rate (JTSQUR), a seasonally-adjusted rate, read as a level.Source FRED (BLS JOLTS)

macro_quits—

How to read Higher = workers confident enough to quit (a tight market); falling = cooling.

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