The earnings engine: implied forward operating EPS plus revision momentum.
How to read Left axis is the implied forward earnings level — a rising line is earnings expansion, a roll-over is contraction. The right-axis line is the momentum of those earnings (their 63-day change): above zero estimates are being marked up, below zero marked down. The real tell is divergence — price grinding higher while the revision line turns down means the rally is outrunning the earnings actually being penciled in.
A FREE proxy for the (paid I/B/E/S) consensus forward EPS.
The forward equity risk premium — the Fed-model relative-value read.
How to read The line is the forward earnings yield minus the 10-year — how much extra yield equities offer over Treasuries. High or rising = equities relatively cheap vs bonds; falling toward or below zero = that cushion has gone, you are paid little or nothing extra to own stocks over bonds (a late-cycle relative-valuation squeeze). Read it as relative value between the two assets, never as a market-direction call.
The Fed model is a valuation COMPARISON (academically critiqued), NOT a return forecast.