Where IG & HY option-adjusted spreads sit — the price of bearing US corporate credit risk over Treasuries.
How to read Tight = risk-on / complacent, wide = stress; judge vs its own multi-decade history (percentile).
A spread is NOT pure expected default — it = expected loss + taxes + risk premium + liquidity premium, and models explain <half its variation (the 'credit spread puzzle'). Don't read OAS as the market's default forecast.